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Анализ динамики распространения коронавируса с помощью обобщенной логистической модели

Кокоулина М., Епифанова А., Пелиновский Е. Н., Куркина О. Е., Куркин А. А.

Purpose: to analyze the dynamics of COVID-19 development using a generalized stochastic logistic equation to esti-mate the number of probable peaks in coronavirus incidence and to evaluate the nature of the scatter of the generalized logistic model coefficients.
Design/methodology/approach: we use a logistic model based on a generalized first-order logistic equation. The data on the incidence of coronavirus in different countries are taken from the website of the World Health Organization.
Findings: It is shown that the generalized logistic equation is a good regression model for all considered countries. At the same time, to describe the daily course of the incidence, it is necessary to take into account random factors, which allows us to consider the coefficients of the logistics model as random, or to introduce external forces, making the logis-tics equation stochastic. Spectral and probabilistic properties of random variations of the logistic equation are deter-mined.
Originality/value: The obtained results may be used for the forecasting of the epidemic characteristics, including COVID-19