Influence Assessment of Intelligent Unmanned Ground Vehicles on the Transport Network State
Abstract: This article is devoted to econometric analysis of the results of experiments conducted with two
agent-based models, which describe the movement of ground vehicles. There are two types of road users in
these models: manned ground vehicles (MGV) and unmanned ground vehicles (UGV). In the first model, the
main difference between UGV and MGV is an ability to exchange massages between UGV for transmitting
information about extreme situations, which allows them to adjust speed and direction of movement. In the
second model, in addition to the above differences, UGV have an additional advantage, namely, the ability to
intelligently assess density of traffic flow for efficient maneuvering. In these models, at a given roundabout,
traffic characteristics such as output stream traffic and the number of traffic accidents are analyzed. The main
task of the econometric analysis is to study dependence of these traffic characteristics on the model parameters
such as average vehicle speed, input flow rate, message exchange rate between UGV, and the impact of the
effect obtained from the implementation into UGV ability of intelligent estimation of traffic flow density.
We introduce simulation models of stock exchange to explore which traders are successful and how their strategies influence to their wealth and probability of bankruptcy. The results of our experiments show that there is a critical level of agent’s experience (or luck) such that agents with this or higher level almost sure will survive on the market on the long run. This critical level is just slightly higher 1/2 and such small value explains why so many people try to trade on the stock exchange. But if trader uses margin trading, the critical level is much higher and shows the risk of excessive losses.
The number of papers addressing the forecasting of the infectious disease morbidity is rapidly growing due to accumulation of available statistical data. This article surveys the major approaches for the short-term and the long-term morbidity forecasting. Their limitations and the practical application possibilities are pointed out. The paper presents the conventional time series analysis methods — regression and autoregressive models; machine learning-based approaches — Bayesian networks and artificial neural networks; case-based reasoning; filtration-based techniques. The most known mathematical models of infectious diseases are mentioned: classical equation-based models (deterministic and stochastic), modern simulation models (network and agent-based).
The manual includes the general orientation information on quantitative and qualitative methods, necessary for experts without basic administrative education. With basic education the manual will be useful for experts not only expansion and fixing of knowledge, but also the annex to actual problems of the organization and management. Its feature that it assumes updating, fixing and judgment of knowledge of the subjects studied earlier, on other forms and training steps. The manual will have practical value for the students who are training on master programs for the Management direction.
In the last two decades considerable attention has been drawn to the methods of computing price indexes for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) products: the discussion started in the USA and then has been continued throughout the globe. Report prepared by Boskin Commission (1996) raised the problem of biases in the price indexes for ICT products: it showed that traditional matched models indexes can substantially overestimate inflation, because they are not able to measure the peculiarities of ICT industries (i.e. fast rotation of goods, huge quality differences among products on the market, short product life cycle, etc). The Commission showed that the use of matched model indexes leads to inflation rates overestimation by 0,6% per year in the US official CPI (CPI-U). Similar results were obtained by Crawford (1998) for Canada, Lequiller (1997) for France, Shiratsuka (1999) for Japan, Hoffmann (1998) for Germany and Cunningham (1996) for the UK.
Members of bacterial communities communicate and cooperate via diffusible chemical materials they emit into the environment, and at the same time, they also compete for nutrients and space. Agent-based models (ABMs) are useful tools for simulating the growth of communities containing multiple interacting microbial species. In this work we present numerical indices characterizing spatial distribution and the fitness of competing bacterial species in an ABM and we present data on how these indices can be used to visually summarize large scale simulation experiments. Preliminary results show bacterial agents utilizing different nutrients but sharing communication signals and public goods can form stable mixed communities in which the species grow faster than any of the single species alone.
A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.
Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability
The geographic information system (GIS) is based on the first and only Russian Imperial Census of 1897 and the First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union of 1926. The GIS features vector data (shapefiles) of allprovinces of the two states. For the 1897 census, there is information about linguistic, religious, and social estate groups. The part based on the 1926 census features nationality. Both shapefiles include information on gender, rural and urban population. The GIS allows for producing any necessary maps for individual studies of the period which require the administrative boundaries and demographic information.
Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a top-down perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottom-up approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of IT-related decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.
I give the explicit formula for the (set-theoretical) system of Resultants of m+1 homogeneous polynomials in n+1 variables