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Regular version of the site

Article

Логистические модели распространения эпидемий

Куркин А. А., Куркина О. Е., Пелиновский Е. Н.

Purpose: It is very important to know the possibility of mathematical models to forecast epidemic spreading including characteristics of the epidemic peak.
Design/methodology/approach: Three different mathematical models are applied to analyze the epidemic spreading. There are: 1) the Verhulst logistic equation, 2) generalized logistic equation, and 3) differential – difference equation.
Results: Analytical solutions of the logistic-like equations are used to analyze the epidemic spreading, and their charac-teristics. The important question to determine the coefficients of the mathematical models using the data of infected patients on the initial stage is discussed.
Area of applicability: The obtained results may be useful for the forecasting of the epidemic characteristics, including COVID-19.