This paper is devoted to mathematical modeling and optimization of business processes and process systems under conditions of uncertainty. At present, modeling of business processes is mainly descriptive, which does not allow quantitative modeling and optimization in the design of processes and process systems. In addition, the existing methods of decision-making in business processes are based on the assumption that the decisive factors are deterministic. Despite uncertainty of the real processes caused by the uncertainty of future costs of resources, the market environment, economy, ﬁ nances, etc., the factors of an uncertain future are either not taken into account, or are believed to be the same as those observed currently. In this paper, a stochastic interval mathematical optimization model is developed. This model allows us to simulate in a quantitative way the business processes and process systems in which they take place, taking into account the uncertainties of the future state of the economy, ﬁ nances, market environment, costs of resources, as well as future realization of chances and risks related to the productive, supporting, and service processes. The criterion for optimality of the model is the maximization of the smallest deviation of the projected chances and risks, which makes it possible to make the best decision in the case that the most unfavorable conditions for the business process occur in the future. The criterion of optimality adopted in the mathematical model takes into account not only the uncertainty of the future state of the economy, ﬁ nance, and market environment, but also the psychology of decision-making and the subjective nature of judgments and estimates. We present a concept and method for estimating the inductive (logical, subjective) probabilities of the occurrence of uncertain projected business process factors. The models and methods developed in the paper make it possible to carry out mathematical modeling and optimization of business processes in a variety of activities without restrictions on the complexity of the structural model of the business process, the qualitative and quantitative composition of the connections in the process systems. On their basis, a software package for the quantitative design of business processes and process systems under conditions of uncertainty can be developed.
This article discusses perspectives of the use of monitoring systems in the enterprises of the manufacturing sector of logistics. The case for the implementation of such systems on real production facilities was considered. The economic efficiency of using monitoring systems was analyzed. For this, three scenarios were created under which it is possible to make mistakes when performing the business process of determining the need for inventory items. The first of them described a situation in which the time of error detection was 1 day; the second scenario suggested an increase in the time of failure to 2 days; scenario 3 described the use of the real-time monitoring system and described situation in which failure in the supply chain caused by shortage of goods was determined instantly. After that, these scenarios were analyzed on the basis of existing contract for production of certain number of finished products. It is shown that the monitoring system can significantly reduce batch production time due to a significant reduction in the probability of making mistakes. Finally, it was shown how the implementation of monitoring and automation system for a number of tasks affects the efficiency of business processes.
Currently in training widely used computer business game, simulating the real conditions of companies. As a subject area in designing a business game organized by the business processes of real enterprises, the perpetrators of which must possess certain competencies. There are many software products that allows to model business processes and build the game scenario based on this model, but their characteristic feature is orientation to a particular business process and scenario development of the game only for this process. When developing a software product, which you can use to build the game scenario for any subject area, there is a problem with the automated build script for models of business processes. The process of constructing the scenario of the business game consists of several stages, one of which is the transformation of the business process model in a unified business process. Models of real business processes are weakly formalized description of the subject area of business game, so this transition is a challenging task. The paper considers the algorithm of transformation of models of real business processes, represented in IDEF0 notation, the model unified business process based on the ontological approach. For transformation build ontological models of elements and a graphical representation in the editor Protégé ontology for the description of the matching elements and their graphical representations created by appropriate limitations, developed rules of transformation, which is also reflected in the ontological model. A query to the ontology that displays matching elements of one notation to another notation built. As an example, given the query, allowing obtaining the matching element of the work process in IDEF0 notation to other notations.
This volume presents new results in the study and optimization of information transmission models in telecommunication networks using different approaches, mainly based on theiries of queueing systems and queueing networks .
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.