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Article

Взаимосвязь жилищного строительства в Московской агломерации и миграция в столичный регион

Куричев Н. К., Куричева Е. К.

Housing construction in Moscow agglomeration is a key mechanism stimulating migration inflow because it forms a downward pressure on housing prices, which are the most important barrier for migration. Positive feedback between extensive way of development of the Moscow agglomeration and migration inflow into the capital region stimulates hyperconcentration of the population and economic activity. Theoretical analysis shows that there is equilibrium between housing construction and migration inflow to the Moscow region. According to our estimates, in the 2000-s the relation of migration inflow to housing construction volume (capability of the Moscow agglomeration to accumulate migration) has halved in comparison to the 1990s. Mathematical modeling and empirical data show that this shift was determined by the increase in natural rent distributed in Russia and in agglomeration economies in other major cities of the country. Especially favorable for migration inflow is oil-spot-style extensive way of development of the agglomeration due to the dominance of large greenfield projects of affordable housing in the 30-km zone outside the Moscow Ring Road in housing construction. It is shown that the development of this zone is a key regulator of the migration balance at the national level. Extensive way of development is subsidized by the government through multiple channels, primarily investments in transport infrastructure, what contradicts official goals of the regional policy and the government efforts to mitigate interregional inequality through the fiscal redistribution.