Article
NONPARAMETRIC BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR GAMMATYPE LEVY SUBORDINATORS
Given discrete time observations over a growing time interval, we consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the Levy density of a Levy process belonging to a flexible class of infinite activity subordinators. Posterior inference is performed via MCMC, and we circumvent the problem of the intractable likelihood via the data augmentation device, that in our case relies on bridge process sampling via Gamma process bridges. Our approach also requires the use of a new infinitedimensional form of a reversible jump MCMC algorithm. We show that our method leads to good practical results in challenging simulation examples. On the theoretical side, we establish that our nonparametric Bayesian procedure is consistent: in the low frequency data setting, with equispaced in time observations and intervals between successive observations remaining fixed, the posterior asymptotically, as the sample size tends to infinity, concentrates around the Levy density under which the data have been generated. Finally, we test our method on a classical insurance dataset.
This paper constructs a DSGE model for an economy with commodity . exports. We estimate the model using Russian data, making a special focus on quantitative effects of commodity price dynamics. There is a widespread belief that economic activity in Russia crucially depends on oil prices, but quantitative estimates are scarce. We estimate an oil price effect on the Russian economy in a general equilibrium framework. Our setup is similar to those of Kollmann (2001) and Dam and Linaa (2005), but we extend their models by explicitly accounting for oil revenues. In addition to standard supply, demand, costpush, and monetary policy shocks, we include the shock of commodity export revenues. The main objective of the paper is to identify the contribution of structural shocks to business cycle fluctuations in the Russian economy. We found that despite a strong impact on GDP from commodity export shocks, business cycles in Russia are mostly domestically based.
In his book, Rowan Wilken, lecturer at the University of Swinburne, Australia, makes an attempt at providing a theoretical frame for a threedimensional problem: the relation between new technologies, communities and places. His main goal is to sculpt an understanding of the relationship between place and community, both of which are transcended by what he calls 'teletechnologies' such as mobile phones, internet and their eventual derivatives. Looking for ‘productive theoretical possibilities to make sense of the complex interactions and interconnections between teletechnologies, place, and community’ appears to be a very difficult task.
What factors best explain the low incidence of skills training in a late industrial society like Russia? This research undertakes a multilevel analysis of the role of occupational structure against the probability of training. The explanatory power of occupationspecific determinants and skills polarisation are evaluated, using a representative 2012 sample from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. Applying a twolevel Bayesian logistic regression model, we show that the incidence of training in Russia is significantly contextualised within the structure of occupations and the inequalities between them. The study shows that extremely high wage gaps within managerial class jobs can discourage training, an unusual finding. Markets accumulating interchangeable and disposable labour best explain the low incidence of training; workers within generic labour are less likely to develop their skills formally, except in urban markets. Although we did not find strong evidence of skills polarisation, Russians are yet to live in a knowledge economy.
In this paper, we introduce a principally new method for modelling the dependence structure between two L{\'e}vy processes. The proposed method is based on some special properties of the timechanged Levy processes and can be viewed as an reasonable alternative to the copula approach.

A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnitedimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasisolutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasisolutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasisolutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasisolutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.
Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of adhoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a fullfledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAPbased method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by adhoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability
The geographic information system (GIS) is based on the first and only Russian Imperial Census of 1897 and the First AllUnion Census of the Soviet Union of 1926. The GIS features vector data (shapefiles) of allprovinces of the two states. For the 1897 census, there is information about linguistic, religious, and social estate groups. The part based on the 1926 census features nationality. Both shapefiles include information on gender, rural and urban population. The GIS allows for producing any necessary maps for individual studies of the period which require the administrative boundaries and demographic information.
Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a topdown perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottomup approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of ITrelated decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.
Let k be a field of characteristic zero, let G be a connected reductive algebraic group over k and let g be its Lie algebra. Let k(G), respectively, k(g), be the field of k rational functions on G, respectively, g. The conjugation action of G on itself induces the adjoint action of G on g. We investigate the question whether or not the field extensions k(G)/k(G)^G and k(g)/k(g)^G are purely transcendental. We show that the answer is the same for k(G)/k(G)^G and k(g)/k(g)^G, and reduce the problem to the case where G is simple. For simple groups we show that the answer is positive if G is split of type A_n or C_n, and negative for groups of other types, except possibly G_2. A key ingredient in the proof of the negative result is a recent formula for the unramified Brauer group of a homogeneous space with connected stabilizers. As a byproduct of our investigation we give an affirmative answer to a question of Grothendieck about the existence of a rational section of the categorical quotient morphism for the conjugating action of G on itself.
Let G be a connected semisimple algebraic group over an algebraically closed field k. In 1965 Steinberg proved that if G is simply connected, then in G there exists a closed irreducible crosssection of the set of closures of regular conjugacy classes. We prove that in arbitrary G such a crosssection exists if and only if the universal covering isogeny Ĝ → G is bijective; this answers Grothendieck's question cited in the epigraph. In particular, for char k = 0, the converse to Steinberg's theorem holds. The existence of a crosssection in G implies, at least for char k = 0, that the algebra k[G]G of class functions on G is generated by rk G elements. We describe, for arbitrary G, a minimal generating set of k[G]G and that of the representation ring of G and answer two Grothendieck's questions on constructing generating sets of k[G]G. We prove the existence of a rational (i.e., local) section of the quotient morphism for arbitrary G and the existence of a rational crosssection in G (for char k = 0, this has been proved earlier); this answers the other question cited in the epigraph. We also prove that the existence of a rational section is equivalent to the existence of a rational Wequivariant map T   >G/T where T is a maximal torus of G and W the Weyl group.