Оценка воздействия государственных инвестиционных программ на показатели социально- экономического развития территорий

Вопросы экономики. 2019. № 1. С. 109–123.

Л.Э. Лимонов, М.В. Несена

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of public investment
programs on the socio-economic development of territories. As a case, the federaltarget
programs for the development of regions and investment programs of
the financial development institution — Vnesheconombank, designed to solve
the problems of regional development are considered. The impact of the public
interventions were evaluated by the “difference in differences” method using
Bayesian modeling. The results of the evaluation suggest the positive impact
of federal target programs on the total factor productivity of regions and on
innovation; and that regional investment programs of Vnesheconombank are
improving the export activity. All of the investments considered are likely to
have contributed to the reduction of unemployment, but their implementation
has been accompanied by an increase in interregional inequality.

Keywords: региональная политика, государственные программы, regional policy, public programs, Bayesian modeling, “difference in differences”, байесовское моделирование, метод «разность разностей»