Russia’s Pivot to Asia: Situational Interest or Strategic Necessity?
The pivot to the Asia-Pacific region is Russia’s strategic response to existential challenges such as the threat of losing great power status, and the need to maintain territorial integrity and independence. This strategy should not be viewed as meant only to ameliorate the economic and demographic situation in the Russian Far East and Eastern Siberia. Instead, it should be interpreted as an opportunity for Russia to break out of the economic, security, and geographic traps she finds herself in within the Western-dominated international order. The emerging Asia-Pacific regional order may develop into a new international order that will be more competitive; it will not be dominated by a single power or ideology but will instead rest on multiple centers of power. This order will be more favorable to Russia than the unipolar Atlantic one, helping Russia utilize her comparative advantages in the territory, resources, hard power, political organization, and ability to mobilize resources for strategic goals
The forecast covers the period up to 2035. It describes dynamic trends that will shape the future of the world during the nearest 20 years. The aim of this study is to foresee the challenges awaiting the world and the forthcoming opportunities which can be used in the interests of the Russian state, ensuring its role as an active participant in the formation of the future world order. The book presents a general analysis of the main trends of world development, its spiritual culture, ideology, politics, innovation, economy, social sphere and interna tional security, the problems of globalization and regionalism. The final section of the book presents strategic recommendations for Russia. Prospective readers of this book include staff members of government institutions and management bodies, research, expert and business communities. It also may be recommended for student scholars of international affairs.
The global order as a system of certain ideas and regularities predominant in the world politics had started to emerge in Europe in the sixteenth century and was finally established in the nineteenth century. However, an established world order usually endures for three-four decades and then it changes under the influence of the changing circumstances and new balance of power. At present we have just entered the epoch of the changing world order and the formation of its new system. The present article analyzes the started weakening of the world order based on the American hegemony as well as the characteristic features and methods employed by the USA to support their position in the world. The author shows why the absolute American hegemony could hardly remain for a long time and also the way in which globalization has become more profitable for the developing and not for the developed countries; and also how the idea has been gradually formed of an inevitable weakening of the US positions. The article defines the current situation in the international relations as a started reconfiguration of the World System which marks the beginning of the epoch of turbulent events and formation of new coalitions. This will be a kind of a transition period to a more stable new world order which will be established with difficulties. The author gives some ideas about the possible directions and ways this new order will be established, what will be the principles of that order and possible mechanisms of its maintaining.
Relations between Russia and the West have reached their lowest point since the Cold War. Unfortunately we cannot be sure that they won’t deteriorate even further. It is time to start to mend ties, but the only consensus view shared by both sides is that business as usual is not an option. The relationship cannot be restored; it should be rebuilt. To do this, we first need to reassess the entire international atmosphere, what happened to the relationship, and how it can be transformed based on new realities.
Our epoch is inseparably connected with revolutionary technological, social and political changes which herald the transition to the new post-industrial civilization. This civilization transit is the third one in the history of humankind. It has a number of peculiarities that are not completely clear and thus require scientific description and analysis. The present-day post-industrial transit opens up huge possibilities for the development of humankind but simultaneously generates new challenges. It seems important to find these challenges and try to predict possible ways of overcoming them. Another considerable problem is interaction between the civilization of the planet whose development accelerates due to tendencies for universalization characteristic of post-industrial transit and local civilizations. The way it exists nowadays and the prospects of this interaction in the future, and also the question of whether local civilizations will be preserved in the future, all these issues are of considerable scientific interest.
The problems and issues above form the object of consideration in this report. The prognostic frame of the report is limited by the next 15-20 years as the end of this period will be characterized by the time of technological revolution which may change the biological basics of human existence. All that will mean formation of a radically new civilization on our planet whose contours are not even visible right now. According to the well-known British physicist, Stephen Hawking, “computers will overtake people…over the next 100 years” and “development of full artificial intelligence may spell the end of human race.”
The publication is a collection of articles prepared by the participants of the special section of the Russian Association of Political Science held within the framework of the VII RAMI Convention on September 28-29, 2012. The publication reflects the range of problems that were discussed during the section.
The author argues what and why should change for the formation of the new world order and what will be the directions and patterns of the formation of this new world order as well as what will be the foundations of this world order and possible mechanisms of its establishment. The author proceeds from the idea that in recent years there has started a reconfiguration of the World System which will bring a rather long-term period of turbulence but also a certain transition from an active formation of new coalitions to a new and more stable world order whose establishment will proceed with certain difficulties.
The present article considers the process of the formation, development and weakening of the world order based on the American hegemony. The ori-gins of the current world order are analyzed. The article presents the analysis of the characteristic features and methods applied by the USA to maintain their position in the world. The author shows how globalization has become more favorable for developing countries than for the developed ones. The gradually forming conviction in the inevitable weakening of the US leadership positions is also analyzed. The article describes the characteristics of the current situation in international relations as a situation of a started reconfiguration of the World-System. The latter should mean the coming of the epoch of turbulence and formation of new coalitions. There will take place a transition to a more sustainable world order which will be a difficult task. The second article will consider the direction and ways of the formation of this new world order, the possible principles and mechanisms of its establishment.
The article deals with the processes of building the information society and security in the CIS in accordance with modern conditions. The main objective is to review existing mechanisms for the formation of a common information space in the Eurasian region, regarded as one of the essential aspects of international integration. The theoretical significance of the work is to determine the main controls of the regional information infrastructure, improved by the development of communication features in a rapid process.The practical component consists in determining the future policies of the region under consideration in building the information society. The study authors used historical-descriptive approach and factual analysis of events having to do with drawing the contours of today's global information society in the regional refraction.
The main result is the fact that the development of information and communication technologies, and network resources leads to increased threats of destabilization of the socio-political situation in view of the emergence of multiple centers that generate the ideological and psychological background. Keeping focused information policy can not be conceived without the collective participation of States in the first place, members of the group leaders of integration - Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Currently, only produced a comprehensive approach to security in the information field in the Eurasian region, but the events in the world, largely thanks to modern technology, make the search for an exit strategy with a much higher speed. The article contributes to the science of international relations, engaging in interdisciplinary thinking that is associated with a transition period in the development of society. A study of current conditions in their relation to the current socio-political patterns of the authors leads to conclusions about the need for cooperation with the network centers of power in the modern information environment, the formation of alternative models of networking, especially in innovation and scientific and technical areas of information policy, and expanding the integration of the field in this region on the information content.