Влияние кризиса на здоровье населения Санкт-Петербурга и цели социальной политики
The aim of the work is to assess the impact of the 2014 geopolitical and economic crisis on the health of St. Petersburg residents. According to the accepted hypothesis, the crisis had a negative impact on the health of citizens and the conditions of their livelihoods. To test the hypothesis, the dynamics of indicators directly describing the level of public health, as well as factors affecting this level, was considered. The long-term trends prevailing in the pre-crisis period were studied, and a linear trend was constructed for each indicator and extrapolated values were calculated for two years following 2014. The main measure of the impact of the crisis on the dynamics of the indicator was the negative deviation from the trend in these years. Twenty-six indicators that showed a negative deviation were identified and investigated. As a result, it was proved that the crisis had a significant negative impact on the health of the residents of St. Petersburg. Including a sharp decline in environmental indicators, which we associate with the tradition of “residual financing” of the social sphere during the crisis, the same reason caused a significant reduction in a number of health resources. The crisis also had a negative impact on the structure of consumption, causing a decrease in the consumption of high-quality goods and an increase in consumption of low-quality goods. The dynamics of the incidence of a number of diseases showed that the deterioration in the quality of nutrition made a significant contribution to the increase in the incidence. It is shown that the current program of development of health care of the city contains low targets and does not take into account environmental factors, which reduces its effectiveness as an instrument of regional social policy. The proposed method makes it possible to calculate scientifically based targets for programs for the restoration development of the social sphere in the region.