Inflation Targeting and the Forward Bias Puzzle in Emerging Countries
Based on quarterly data on 31 emerging countries (among which 16 are inflation targeting
countries) from 1990Q1 to 2014Q3, we obtain a strong support for the conjecture that the
implementation of inflation targeting weakens the Fisherian relation between expected
depreciation and the interest rate differential (uncovered interest parity condition) and
thus is conducive to the appearance of the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries.
We show that this reflects the performance of inflation targeting regimes in lowering
the level and volatility of inflation. Our finding holds when controlling for countryspecific
effects, time-specific effects, global disinflation, exchange rate management, crises,
and using different econometric techniques.
This empirically and theoretically grounded book provides insights into the ascendance of powers such as Turkey, South Korea and Indonesia and their relationship with Africa. Leading scholars present case studies from the BRICS and beyond to demonstrate the constantly evolving and complex character of these ties and their place in the global capitalist order. They also offer new theoretical insights, as well as theorisation of the spatio-temporal dynamics involved in processes of accumulation within the African space. Their contention is that, despite their supposed anti-imperialism, these emerging powers have become agents for continued uneven development. This innovative edited collection will appeal to students and scholars of international relations, political science, development studies, area studies, geography and economics.
The problem of optimal monetary policy is extremely relevant for Russia. Although the monetary authority claims that inflation targeting is the main goal of the monetary policy, empirical finding suggest that the real exchange rate targeting is of major importance (see Vdovichenko / Voronina 2004). Due to the rising flow of petrodollars, the rouble is currently experiencing a significant real appreciation. The fear to harm exports causes the monetary authority to respond by accumulating dollar reserves and increasing the money supply, thus preventing a nominal appreciation. Such policy leads to high inflation which benefits of some groups at the expense of others. That is why the optimal degree of intervention is in the centre of the current political and economic debate.
The first yearbook, published by the Observatoire franco-russe, aims to provide the most complete analysis possible of the situation in Russia. Bringing together the contributions of some 50 recognized experts, it is organized around four themes: the economy, internal politics and society, regions and foreign and defense policy. The fifth part, entitled “Franco-Russian Miscellany”, illustrates the history, diversity and exceptional richness of relations between our two countries. Considering discrepancies between perceptions of Russia in Europe and the evolutions that have occurred in the country since the end of the UDDR, the Observatoire wishes to provide dispassionate, in-depth, operational and accessible expertise. In other words, to restore a measure of nuance and complexity to a subject too often caricatured either intentionally or by ignorance.
In this paper we analyze official monthly inflation forecast in Russia using ARMA-model. The main purpose of the analysis is to test hypotheses about whether the official inflation forecast is an instrument of monetary policy.
The ability of a central bank to conduct an independent monetary policy is a key condition for switching to a free floating exchange rate regime and for pursuing inflation targeting policies. The objective of our study is to evaluate how the exchange rate policies conducted by the Russian Central Bank (RCB) during different periods have impacted the domestic money market. We estimate the sensitivity of domestic interest rates to their foreign counterparts through uncovered and covered interest rate parities and find significant variations in the coefficient estimates for different phases of exchange rate policies. This dynamics allows us to assess how successful the RCB were in its efforts to create an institutional background enabling a gradual transition to free floating and inflation targeting monetary policies.
Based on an analysis of exchange rates and industrial production in the world’s twenty-five largest economies during the current global crisis, the author challenges the commonly held concept that the absorption of exogenous shocks that stabilizes the real sector of the economy is one of the advantages of a free-floating exchange rate policy. The article also analyzes additional risks associated with a free-floating exchange rate regime in Russia and presents some arguments in favor of a managed-floating exchange rate regime.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.