A predictive model of economic dynamics during stagflation taking into account the volatility of the national currency
This paper considers the mathematical model of economic dynamics under the conditions of stagflation, which was previously developed by the authors and is now generalized for the case of the volatility of the national currency due to the volatility of oil prices. The model is used for the medium-term forecast of economic development in Russia up to 2020.
The paper contains attempt to develop theory which try to explain – in the Post Keynesian “spirit” – why can stagflation be inherent in the modern market advanced economy. The treatment of such economy as the “inside money economy” is very important. The author shows that stagflation is the inevitable feature of any recession in the inside money economy, when price-controlling firms try to avoid immediately the bankruptcies in the conditions of a “debt crisis", higher and/or rising interest rates and decrease in the aggregate demand. In other words, a recession in such economy is always a stagflation. The paper also shows that cyclical expansion together with redemption of debts by some firms and the bankruptcies of other firms can deliver the economy from stagflation, but only until the beginning of a next recession. All this reasoning can be very important in the current period of the 2007 – 2012 Global Financial Crisis.
In this paper, we suggest an approach to the study of the financial instability based on the model of evolutionary processes. In the first place, we present some empirical facts that confirm that the stock’s price dynamics is better described by the Markov switching model rather than by the pure random walk. Further, using the equilibrium model of price formation, we show that the temporary price trends on stock market are evolutionary processes that occur in the conditions of a duality of the equilibrium between the market price and the fair value. Then, within the framework of the constructed model, we analyze the causes of the financial market instability and its impact on the real sector, and show how the financial markets create a destructive impulse under the economic growth slowdown, and therefore adversely affect the process of innovations diffusion into the market. The conducted study shows that the causes of the financial instability are the capital concentration in the narrow circles of society and the lack of investment opportunities, as compared with the available financial resources, whereas the symptoms are frequently recurring financial bubbles and crises.
We consider certain spaces of functions on the circle, which naturally appear in harmonic analysis, and superposition operators on these spaces. We study the following question: which functions have the property that each their superposition with a homeomorphism of the circle belongs to a given space? We also study the multidimensional case.
We consider the spaces of functions on the m-dimensional torus, whose Fourier transform is p -summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of the exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase. The results generalize to the multidimensional case the one-dimensional results obtained by the author earlier in “Quantitative estimates in the Beurling—Helson theorem”, Sbornik: Mathematics, 201:12 (2010), 1811 – 1836.
We consider the spaces of function on the circle whose Fourier transform is p-summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase.