Эколого-экономическое моделирование влияния окружающей среды на заболеваемость подрастающего поколения на примере Нижегородской области
The younger generation is the demographic, socio-economic and labor potential of the society. Quality of labor resources directly depends upon health status of this population group and is one of the most important components of the country's resource potential. In this regard, a thorough analysis of the pediatric health status determinants is a topical issue.
Currently, within the context of a stable ecological imbalance, factors reflecting environmental situation are one of the essential determinants of the pediatric health.
The purpose of the study is to analyze influence of environmental factors on health of children aged 0 to 14 years exemplified by the Nizhny Novgorod region. The object of modeling was incidence rate in children aged 0 to 14 in 50 municipalities of the Nizhny Novgorod region in 2000-2016.
The study used methods of econometric analysis, including panel regression with fixed and random effects, as well as Wooldridge tests for the unobserved effects and Darbin-Woo-Hausman for the regressions’ diagnostics. Calculations were carried out on the basis of the data of the Nizhny Novgorod Statistics Service and Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation.
Results of the model estimation suggest a statistically significant effect of the considered factors on the level of the pediatric incidence rate. Factors that have a significant impact on health of the younger generation include availability of pediatricians and district doctors providing outpatient primary health care to children aged 0-14; current expenditures on environmental protection; proportion of unpurified emissions in the total amount of pollutants discarded from the stationary sources; emissions of pollutants into atmosphere from the stationary sources; number of water samples analyzed according to sanitary-chemical indicators taken from sources of the centralized water supply with a breakdown on districts, that do not meet the sanitary standards. The obtained econometric model can be used to predict pediatric incidence in relation to environmental factors to develop programs aimed at improving quality of life of the younger generation.