Влияние терактов на динамику мировых фондовых рынков: ситуационный анализ
Despite the efforts of law enforcement agencies of the world's leading countries, the influence of radical movements has become much stronger in last decades. Terrorist acts lead to a sharp destabilization in the country especially in its economy. Although the number of terrorist acts is growing, their impact on the financial markets is still barely studied. That is why the aim of this work is to define the general nature of the impact of terrorist attacks on world stock markets. For this purpose, the authors use data for nineteen countries for the period from 1988 to May 2017. The situational analysis, which is based on this data, made it possible to identify the main trends in the impact of terrorist attacks on the dynamics of market indices in developed and developing countries, and also to describe Russian specifics. The conclusions of this work can be useful to market agents as well as to the organizers of trades and regulators, for the formation of timely and correct measures to stabilize the financial system in such situations.
Subject. Features of terrorist attacks which have an impact on stock indices. 117 terrorist acts committed in different countries for the last 28 years (1988-2016) were studied. Particular attention was given to the Russian specific characters.
Aims. To assess the impact of terrorist attacks on the dynamics of stock indices. It will let market participants make better decisions and avoid excessive losses. Eventually it will help the stock market go through a terrorist attack with minimum negative consequences.
Methodology. The methodology comprises historical-logical, graphical, statistical and comparative analysis. It let us describe the impact of different features of terrorist attacks on the dynamics of stock indices. We also systematized analytical information in this field of knowledge.
Results. It was found that the impact of terrorist attacks on the dynamics of stock indices depends on a few factors: a number of victims, a level of an economic development of a country, a day of the terrorist attack, etc. It was proved that the previous market trend has a significant influence on the dynamics of the stock index after the attack. Moreover, it should be noted that the impact of terrorist attacks on different industries is different and depends on a number of factors.
Findings. It was shown that in most cases terrorist attacks have a significant impact on the dynamics of stock indices. According to this, investors should not make rash decisions in order to avoid losses. Results of this work can be used by investors, market-makers and other market participants.
Importance The article considers the features of terrorist attacks, which have an impact on stock indices.It analyzes 117 terrorist attacks committed in different countries within 1988–2016. Objectives The research assesses how terrorist attacks influence stock index trends. It will enable market agents make better decisions and avoid excessive losses, reduce negative reaction of the market in general, and helpthe national financial system minimize the adverse consequences of terrorist attacks. Methods We employ historical-logical, graphical, statistical methods and a comparative analysis to describean impact of different aspects of terrorist attacks on the dynamics of stock indices. We also systematize analytical information in this area. Results The findings show that the impact of terrorist attacks on stock index dynamics depends on various factors, i.e. the number of victims, level of country’s economic development, day of terrorist attack, etc. We found out that the market trend before a terrorist attack had a significant influence on stock index movement after the attack.Terrorist attacks influence industries in a different way. Conclusions and Relevance Terrorist attacks mostly have a dramatic impact on the dynamics of stock indices. However, the influence is often insignificant and impermanent. Therefore, investors should refrain from ill-judged financial decisions to avoid losses. The findings may be useful for investors, market makers and other market participants.
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