Interaction of the Russian Financial Markets
The different segments of he Russian financial markets are studied in the paper. The market crashed on 17 August 1998. We consider the stable period of the market between May 1996 and October 1997. We study the structure of interactions between the GKO market, stock market, currency market, currency futures market, GKO futures market, interbank credit market. We study the relations between the world financial market and the Russian financial market. It was shown that, in the period under consideration, different segments of the Russian financial market became more integrated and the market as whole became more stable and more integrated in the international capital flows.
The assessment of decision-making strategies based mainly on the reflection and self-evaluation of the choice does not allow predicting and, therefore, learning the ways of decision strategies management in personally important situations or in any way connected with great risk. Selection sequence of solutions, the subjective assessment of selected and rejected alternatives, assessment of the results achieved after each selection allowed to diagnose the examinee’s attitude to his or her emotional responding to the specifics of the situation and ways of coping. Object: financial sector experts Subject: the decision making process in the situation of emotional risk alternatives selection. Tasks were: · Analyze the current approaches to the evaluation of decision-making in situations where the choice is connected with emotions; · Compare the existing methods of evaluation of emotional component in decision-making; · Develop an assessment procedure for the emotional risk management in the decision making process. · Approbation of the developed procedure on the financial experts, comparing the results with the evaluation of the decision and emotional state. Results were effective work strategies for the decision-specific specialist of the financial sector.
This book contains a unique collection of studies on key economic and social policy challenges faced by countries of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region in a short- and long-term perspective. Prepared within the EU funded FP7 project on „Prospective Analysis for the Mediterranean Region (MEDPRO)” conducted in 2010-2013 it takes account on recent political developments in the region (Arab Spring) and their potential consequences. It covers a broad spectrum of topics such as factors of economic growth, macroeconomic and fiscal stability, trade and investment, Euro-Mediterranean and intra-regional economic integration, private sector development and privatizations, infrastructure, tourism, agriculture, financial sector development, poverty and inequality, education, labor market and gender issues.
The article represents a review of the different theories of financial bubbles developed within modern financial theory. It is a concluding article in a series of three articles devoted to the theoretical foundations of financial bubbles. The previous articles are published in the e-journal The Corporate Finance, vol. 13-14, # 1-3, 2010.
Financial markets tend to demonstrate extreme events in prices dynamics, among those are jumps leading to drastic prices’ changes and even regimes switching as well as for some instruments and for the markets overall.
Effective forecasting of price dynamics and actions planning by the market participants doesn’t necessary demand exact future price trajectories extrapolation, but estimation of duration of time periods, during which the prices won’t fall down more than a given mark could be enough.
In the paper an approach to forecasting durations between consequent market crashes is suggested. A significant autocorrelation was found in durations between crashes of DJIA during more than last 80 years. These autocorrelation allowed estimating a series of autoregressive conditional duration models to forecast time periods before next index crash. The models demonstrate significant forecasting power, especially in situations when consequent crashes appear rather frequently.
We consider multistage bidding models where two types of risky assets (shares) are traded between two agents that have different information on the liquidation prices of traded assets. These prices are random integer variables that are determined by the initial chance move according to a probability distribution p over the two-dimensional integer lattice that is known to both players. Player 1 is informed on the prices of both types of shares, but Player 2 is not. The bids may take any integer value.
The model of n-stage bidding is reduced to a zero-sum repeated game with lack of information on one side. We show that, if liquidation prices of shares have finite variances, then the sequence of values of n-step games is bounded. This makes it reasonable to consider the bidding of unlimited duration that is reduced to the infinite game G1(p). We offer the solutions for these games.
We begin with constructing solutions for these games with distributions p having two and three-point supports. Next, we build the optimal strategies of Player 1 for bidding games G1(p) with arbitrary distributions p as convex combinations of his optimal strategies for such games with distributions having two- and three-point supports. To do this we construct the symmetric representation of probability distributions with fixed integer expectation vectors as a convex combination of distributions with not more than three-point supports and with the same expectation vectors.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.