Simulation System for Making Political and Macroeconomical Decisions and Its Development
Object of this research are macroeconomic indicators, which are important to
descript economic situation in a country. Purpose of this work is to identify these indicators
and to analyze how the state can affect these figures with available instruments. Here was
constructed a model where the targets can be calculated from raw data – tools in the field of
economic policy. Software code that implements all relations among the indicators and allows
to analyze with high accuracy, sufficiently successful economic policies and with the help of
some tools, you can achieve better results. This model can be used to forecast macroeconomic
scenarios. The corresponding values of the objective (outcome) variables are set as a
consequence of the configuration data of the previous period, subject to external influences and
depend on the instrumental variables. The results may be useful in economical predictions. The
results were successfully checked on real scenarios of Russian, European and Chinese
economics. Moreover, the results can be applied in the field of education. Program is available
to use as “economical game” the educational process of the University, in which you can
virtually implement various macroeconomic scenarios, draw conclusions about their success.
Creature questions of the mathematical, informational and programming support for the practice network community control are considered. Community mathematical model is proposed. This model utilization as basis for realization of the control system principal functions in the context of the participant interaction improvement and object community regions forming is considered.
We propose a new mathematical growth model of primary tumor and primary metastases which may help to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer process using an original mathematical model referred to CoM-IV and corresponding software. The CoM-IV model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases; b) make forecast of patient survival; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of BC and facilitate optimisation of diagnostic tests. The CoM-IV enables us, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) considering only on primary tumor sizes. Summarising: CoM-IV a) describes correctly primary tumor and primary distant metastases growth of IV (T1-4N0-3M1) stage with (N1-3) or without regional metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and manifestation of primary metastases.
A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.
Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability
The geographic information system (GIS) is based on the first and only Russian Imperial Census of 1897 and the First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union of 1926. The GIS features vector data (shapefiles) of allprovinces of the two states. For the 1897 census, there is information about linguistic, religious, and social estate groups. The part based on the 1926 census features nationality. Both shapefiles include information on gender, rural and urban population. The GIS allows for producing any necessary maps for individual studies of the period which require the administrative boundaries and demographic information.
Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a top-down perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottom-up approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of IT-related decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.