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  • Прогнозирование добычи природного газа ПАО «Газпром» и его производственного потенциала в условиях внешнеэкономических ограничений

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Прогнозирование добычи природного газа ПАО «Газпром» и его производственного потенциала в условиях внешнеэкономических ограничений

Афанасьев А. А.

This study is devoted to forecasting the Russian Gazprom natural gas production from the Tyumen region's fields and its production potential under in the context of the Russian economy crises and foreign economic restrictions that has been occurred since 2014, including a reduction in external and domestic demand for all Russian natural gas as well as for gas of Gazprom. On the basis of gas production function estimated for 1985-2008 we make forecasts for 2017 of Gazprom gas production volumes in Tyumen region (where the company extracts more than 90% of its gas) and estimate the under-utilized production potential of PJSC Gazprom in this region for 2014-2016. Basing on the additional econometric study of Gazprom gas production function (with labour) in the Tyumen Region we have empirically proved the growth of the coefficient of the company's neutral technical progress since 2014, one of the consequences of which, according to the author, was a continuous decline since 2014 the unit cost of natural gas production of the Gazprom subsidiary Gazprom dobycha Nadym, which operates the largest Bovanenkovskoye ​​oil and gas condensate field in the Yamal Peninsula which reserves are estimated to be 4.9 trillion cubic metres of gas. It is concluded that under the Russian economy crisis that has been intensified since 2014 as well as the foreign economic and political restrictions that have been started in the same year, in the segment of gas production Russian Gazprom continues to be an effective natural monopoly with increasing coefficient of neutral technical progress, declining average gas production cost in new fields and minimal production costs, the marginal and average values ​​of which coincide and do not depend on the volumes of produced gas.