Непараметрический метод оболочечного анализа для портфельных построений на российском рынке облигаций
In this paper for the first time on the base of the non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method the authors build and test portfolios in the Russian bond market. Using DEA we perform integral evaluation and rank by optimality (efficiency) outstanding ruble corporate bonds from the perspective of a private investor. Our original algorithm for building an optimal bond portfolio includes two analytical procedures: first we identify the determinants of the yield to maturity of ruble corporate bonds for a diversified sample of real sector companies from 2008 to 2015, then we apply the DEA method for this sample in order to find the optimal set of bonds for the portfolio. At the final stage we test (for 2014—2015) an investment strategy based on picking for the portfolio the ruble corporate bonds that reached the efficiency frontier. In order to identify the determinants of ruble corporate bond yields we analyze a set of macroeconomic and firm-level (financial and non-fundamental) factors, characteristics of bond issues using econometric methods. For the first time in the Russian bond market we consider not only current but also expected inflation and GDP growth, risk indicators (the volatility index RTS VIX as a proxy). We identify the optimal bond issues (the bond issues that reached the efficiency frontier) taking into account a set of different factors: yield to maturity, duration and liquidity of bond issues, credit risk indicators of bond issuers. The results of a regression analysis confirm our hypothesis that yield to maturity is significantly influenced by revenue of a bond issuer, the repo eligible factor (inclusion of a bond issue in the Lombard list of the Bank of Russia), the government’s share in the equity, the bond issuer’s debt burden indicators, the level of current and expected inflation. The efficiency (optimality) frontier mainly consists of bond issues of large companies with the government’s participation in the equity. Our hypothesis that investing in the bond issues on the efficiency frontier can beat the bond benchmarks’ returns and “return / volatility” ratios are confirmed in part, for the period of 2014 characterized by a decrease in prices of ruble bonds.
What is governmental effectiveness on the regional level? How can the study of regional effectiveness help us understand the performance of the political, social and economic systems of the state as a whole? These questions are very important from both the theoretical and applied perspectives, and the Russian Federation, with its huge and diverse territory, provides extremely rich material to answer them. Serious institutional reforms in the public sector have been implemented in recent years, and the results vary substantially from one region to another. So, in Russia, we can study how general attempts to make government more effective - guided by federal policies - produce particular regional effects, and, conversely, how regions implement federal policy differently. Both views tell us something important about overall governmental quality.
Governmental effectiveness, though in a broad sense one of the oldest issues in political science and philosophy, is currently enjoying a renaissance. The quantity of recent publications and even a special academic structure - The Quality of Government Institute in Sweden – illustrate the current interest. However, researching governmental effectiveness poses serious difficulties, on both the conceptual and instrumental levels. Despite (perhaps even because of) the variety of available theoretical frameworks, the essential core notions of governmental effectiveness and good governance remain murky. Furthermore, scholars disagree about what effectiveness and efficiency mean in a general sense. These issues obviously make it difficult to construct adequate measurement instruments.
The paper seeks to achieve three goals: 1) to review existing approaches and highlight their weak points; 2) to propose a theoretical framework for analyzing governmental effectiveness using appropriate estimation tools; and 3) to present empirical results based on data on public health care from Russia’s regions. Three patterns that ought to correlate - regional efficiency, how reform has been implemented and public opinion – are, instead, inconsistent with each other. Russia’s health-care sector today faces considerable problems with basic, systemic effectiveness.
A “Network Analysis” section was arranged at the XVIIIth Interna- tional Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development at the Higher School of Economics on 11–12 April 2017. For the third year, this section invited scholars from sociology, political science, management, mathematics, and linguistics who use network analysis in their research projects. During the sessions, speakers discussed the development of mathematical models used in network analysis, studies of collaboration and communication networks, networks’ in- uence on individual attributes, identifcation of latent relationships and regularities, and application of network analysis for the study of concept networks.
The speakers in this section were E. V. Artyukhova (HSE), G. V. Gra- doselskaya (HSE), M. Е. Erofeeva (HSE), D. G. Zaitsev (HSE), S. A. Isaev (Adidas), V. A. Kalyagin (HSE), I. A. Karpov (HSE), A. P. Koldanov (HSE), I. I. Kuznetsov (HSE), S. V. Makrushin (Fi- nancial University), V. D. Matveenko (HSE), A. A. Milekhina (HSE), S. P. Moiseev (HSE), Y. V. Priestley (HSE), A. V. Semenov (HSE), I. B. Smirnov (HSE), D. A. Kharkina (HSE, St. Petersburg), C. F. Fey (Aalto University School of Business), and F. López-Iturriaga (Uni- versity of Valladolid).
DEA-analysis is performed based on publicly available data on 94 world largest fashion retailers. Standard clusterization of coefficients obtained from DEA-analysis gives clusters that are analyzed with respect to homogeneity and fit to the types of strategic behavior outlined in strategic management.
The study has two major focuses. The first one is of a methodological kind: we investigate the capabilities of a formal dynamic model to link theory and empirical estimation techniques. The other one is much more specified: we deal with the problems of public good provision and public capital accumulation and depreciation. Tying it all together, we demonstrate how formal theory can adjust the evaluation of public investment efficiency.
The first part of the paper presents the dynamic formal model construction. The core of it is Cobb-Douglas production function with public and private capital as input factors. Public capital stock is increased by budget investment inflow. A set of parameters which regulate system’s efficiency enters the model. They are total factor productivity, public investment effectiveness and the efficiency of public assets’ maintenance and utilization. We also define a special policy space of the model.
In the major part of the paper we examine the data, generated by various models with different efficiency parameter values, via Data envelopment analysis (DEA). We demonstrate that the best estimates are obtained when we use cumulative inputs (the sum of budgets investments over a few time periods). Thus we show that dynamic formal model analysis can make a practical contribution to estimation techniques’ “fine tuning”.
The article performs a comparative analysis of the efficiency of G20, BRICS and NIC member countries’ participation in global value chains (GVC) taking into account economic growth, investment activity, global competitiveness and productivity in the period from 2000 to 2009. Efficiency is evaluated by means of the method of data envelopment analysis under constant and variable returns of scale assumptions. The comparison of the efficiency of developed and developing countries participation in GVCs is made, the leaders and outsiders in using the GVCs’ potential are revealed. For the latter the target values of the input and output parameters allowing to reach the efficiency frontier are indicated.
In recent decades, increased economic pressure and growing societal expectations have led to the introduction of performance-based funding models for universities. In this respect, a great scholarly attention has paid to how to evaluate universities performance correctly. This allows national governments to design and apply various taxonomies to facilitate the development of efficient programmes for the advancement of higher education. The wide spread approach used for that purpose is DEA. This paper provides a review of different approaches how to take into account universities heterogeneity when applying DEA to construct the typologies of university by showing statistically their similarities and differences. The authors use the modified DEA proposed by Aleskerov & Petrushchenko (2013) to evaluate performance scores of Russian technical universities. This proposed typology divides universities into specific groups with a description taking into account their heterogeneity.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.