Прогнозирование добычи нефти и газового конденсата в вычислимой модели денежного обращения российской экономики

Экономика и математические методы. 2017. Т. 53. № 2. С. 50–65.

Afanasyev A. A.

The author proposes a modification of a computable simulation model for money circulation in the Russian economy developed in the Laboratory of social simulation CEMI together with academician V.L. Makarov and researcher A.A. Losev due to disaggregation of a block “Oil and gas industry” agent on the two modified model block – a block “Exploration of oil and gas” and a block “Oil and gas production”. In this article we will explore a model related to the exploration and production of oil and gas condensate leaving development of similar models for natural and associated gas for the next study. For modeling of crude oil and gas condensate production, we decide to divide all the 144 Russian oil fields and oil production centers into five groups according to the level of oil production in 2014. On the basis of the model’s two sub-blocks of exploration and production of oil and gas condensate, designed to computable monetary economy of Russia, we forecast volumes of Russian oil and gas condensate production up to 2035 for five aggregated centers of oil production, the federal districts and Russia as a whole under the inertial scenario of economic development in 2014. Given values of internal oil prices, the rate of tax of oil extraction, price and rental rates for new fixed assets, other fixed costs in the production of oil, given at the 2014 level the calculations show a decrease in volumes of oil and gas condensate production in Russia by 5% for 2035.

Keywords: российская экономика, Russian economy, forecasting, прогнозирование, геологоразведка, crude oil and gas condensate production, computable simulation model for money circulation, oil fields, exploration, добыча нефти и газового конденсата, вычислимая модель денежного обращения, нефтяные месторождения