Article
Доверительное оценивание демографических коэффициентов на примере коэффициентов смертности
Moscow is the region with the highest life expectancy in Russia. The country’s largest city, it has high incomes, a special population structure and a high concentration of all resources, including in the healthcare sector, which is given special attention by the city authorities. In some periods, the changes in life expectancy in Moscow have been unique compared to most other regions of Russia. The difference in life expectancy between Moscow and Russia in the period from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s was mainly due to lower mortality in middle age. Since the mid-2000s, the main contribution to the difference in life expectancy has been shifting to old age mortality. Given the overall rapid decline of mortality in Moscow since then, changes in the mortality rates and life expectancy of certain age groups seem implausible. The quality of population and mortality data has a significant impact on the accuracy of estimates of mortality indicators and requires special attention in the case of Moscow. In particular, the number of people at advanced ages in Moscow is likely to be overestimated, which affects mortality rates in this age group. Peculiarities of mortality by causes of death in Moscow generally correspond to the average Russian trends; however, in Moscow a more rapid decrease in mortality from neoplasms is observed, as well as more realistic age-specific death rates in older age groups.
The problem of excess mortality in Russia has not lost its relevance. The situation is complicated by the high level of spatial inequality in health, which is usually measured at the regional level in our country. This work is one of the first attempts to look at the dynamics and extent of spatial inequality in health in Russia at the sub-regional level, by contrasting the "center/core" (in our case, represented by the largest Russian cities) with the "periphery" (the rest of the country). Cities with a population of over a million people were chosen based on the spatial hierarchy that exists in Russia, according to which the highest level of social and economic development is concentrated in the largest cities. As a rule, a higher level of development of human capital corresponds to lower mortality. Using data provided by Rosstat we calculated life expectancy at birth for Russian cities with a population of over a million people in 1989-2016. The results fully coincided with our expectations: the polarization in the health level between the largest Russian cities and the rest of the country has significantly increased in the last twenty-five years, which is a reflection of those centripetal processes that have been taking place in our country during this period. Russian cities with a population of over a million people are attractive destinations for both internal and external migrants, and thus acquire among other things a much more educated population. Since people with higher education take better care of their health, having a more educated population is undoubtedly an essential advantage of bigger cities over the periphery when it comes to the overall health level. Without solving the structural problems that restrain social and economic development outside the largest agglomerations, convergence in mortality rates between cities with a population of over a million people and the surrounding territories is hardly possible.
The future of world population in the next 100 years is considered from the point of view of main demographic components: fertility, mortality, family, and migration. These problems are discussed for the population of Russia as well.
The future of world population in the next 100 years is considered from the point of view of main demographic components: fertility, mortality, family, and migration. These problems are discussed for the population of Russia as well.
Population process in dynamic development ongoing in Murmansk Region (located beyond the Arctic Circle on the territory of the European part of the Russian Federation Arctic zone in the period 2001-2015 has been characterized in the paper. Major features of natural population movement (fertility, mortality) including labor potential have been esteemed. A major loss of labor potential was due to population decline (22,4 %), despite positive increase in 1.38 times of the total fertility rate and life expectancy among men up to 64,0 years, women - 75,7 years. It is shown that mortality increase was registered in the region among males of working age from disease that could be connected not only with Arctic climate and geographic conditions but also with labor conditions on industrial complex production of Kola Arctic Circle. The rate of diseases of respiratory and circulatory systems as well as malignant neoplasms increased in monotowns in Murmansk Region. 93 % of population is urban, which is a source of labor for city forming enterprise. Proportion of people working in harmful exposure in the industrial complex enterprises was: men- 68,0 %, women - 36,8 %, including enterprises engaged in the extraction of commercial minerals: men - 78,7, women - 50,0 %.
Several approaches to the concept of fatherhood present in Western sociological tradition are analyzed and compared: biological determinism, social constructivism and biosocial theory. The problematics of fatherhood and men’s parental practices is marginalized in modern Russian social research devoted to family and this fact makes the traditional inequality in family relations, when the father’s role is considered secondary compared to that of mother, even stronger. However, in Western critical men’s studies several stages can be outlined: the development of “sex roles” paradigm (biological determinism), the emergence of the hegemonic masculinity concept, inter-disciplinary stage (biosocial theory). According to the approach of biological determinism, the role of a father is that of the patriarch, he continues the family line and serves as a model for his ascendants. Social constructivism looks into man’s functions in the family from the point of view of masculine pressure and establishing hegemony over a woman and children. Biosocial theory aims to unite the biological determinacy of fatherhood with social, cultural and personal context. It is shown that these approaches are directly connected with the level of the society development, marriage and family perceptions, the level of egality of gender order.
This article is talking about state management and cultural policy, their nature and content in term of the new tendency - development of postindustrial society. It mentioned here, that at the moment cultural policy is the base of regional political activity and that regions can get strong competitive advantage if they are able to implement cultural policy successfully. All these trends can produce elements of new economic development.