Влияние политики инфляционного таргетирования на динамику прямых иностранных инвестиций
This paper investigates the effect of inflation targeting adoption over foreign direct investments dynamics using a wide control group. We refer to the adoption of inflation targeting as a treatment, to the IT countries as a treated group and to the non–IT countries as a control group. There are several potential channels through which inflation targeting can stimulate the inflows of the foreign direct investments: reduction and stabilization of inflation level, enhancing the sustainability of the macroeconomic environment, increasing the transparency of the monetary policy, development of market economy institutions. Based on the panel date of more than 130 developing and developed countries over the period since 1980 to 2014, we directly evaluate the effect of inflation targeting by implementing a variety of propensity score matching methods. We find no evidence that the IT adoption enhances foreign direct investments inflows. Indeed, the average treatment effect is small and insufficient. This result is robust to the alternative definitions of the adoption dates and matching methods.
This paper has several important differences from previous theoretical works. Firstly, we use a wide control group, which can be result in less biased estimates (we can consider the role of unobserved factors more accurately). Secondly, we consider the period from 1980 to 2014, and evaluates trends associated with the global financial crisis.
One important policy recommendations based on the results of this paper is that monetary policy itself is not a good instrument for attracting foreign investors.