New Method of Randomized Forecasting Using Entropy-Robust Estimation: Application to the World Population Prediction
We propose a new method of randomized forecasting (RF-method), which operates with models described by systems of linear ordinary differential equations with random parameters. The RF-method is based on entropy-robust estimation of the probability density functions (PDFs) of model parameters and measurement noises. The entropy-optimal estimator uses a limited amount of data. The method of randomized forecasting is applied to World population prediction. Ensembles of entropy-optimal prognostic trajectories of World population and their probability characteristics are generated. We show potential preferences of the proposed method in comparison with existing methods.
Simulating principles of proposed attribute (A) and object-attribute (OA) architectures of computer systems (CS) that implement the dataflow execution model, and the results of a dataflow-supercomputer system simulation are described. A new formalism of "Attribute Nets" (A-nets) is proposed for mathematical modeling of dataflow-CS that differs significantly from apparatus of Petri Nets. This formalism lays foundation for the OA-programming&simulation environment of a dataflow-CS which is used in development programming and test of the OA-supercomputer system.
By analyzing the logs of corporate e-mail networks we found a number of patterns, showing how the size of ego-networks of individual employees changes on a day by day basis. We proposed a simple model that adequately describes the observed time dependence of an employee's "social circle". Comparison of experimental data with the theoretical model showed that employees are divided into two groups - with fast and slow changes in their social circles, respectively. We believe that the presence of these groups reflects both project-type and process-type of employees' activities. Comparison of data obtained before and during the global economic crisis has shown that the crisis led to an actual reduction in project-type activities.
Described approach delivers opportunities for unstructured information utilization in order to increase efficiency of innovation in education activity for separate tutors, science workers, professors and for scholarship, university as a whole for creating and automation of innovative process and therefore for maximization of ROI (return on investments) in universities intellectual and social capital. As a result, virtual community with a multiple content centres is created presenting a prototype of intellectual neural network with distributed association nodes. These nodes are formed during non-standard educational process similar to brainstorming where participants have quite different knowledge levels and limitation due to ‘traditional thinking’, for example, classical seminar in auditorium in parallel with webinar. In this process all steps except final (gathering of experts) are human non-dependant, what increase efficiency of this process in general.
The considered model of the failure rate of CMOS VHSIC design proposed in the article Piskun G.A., Alekseev V.F., "Improvement of mathematical models calculating of CMOS VLSIC taking into account features of impact of electrostatic discharge", published in the first issue of the journal "Technologies of electromagnetic compatibility" for the year 2016. It is shown that the authors claim that this model "...will more accurately assess the reliability of CMOS VHSIC design" is fundamentally flawed and its application will inevitably lead to inadequate results. Alternatively, the proposed model of the failure rate of CMOS VHSIC design, which also allows to take into account the views of ESD, but based on the use of resistance characteristics of CMOS VHSIC to the effects of ESD.
The paper presents a dicision rule forming a mathematical basis of earthquake forecasting problem. We develop an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of a multicomponent random fields on a lattice.
The volume contains articles of scientific staff and faculty of the Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics and Scientific-Educational Center of computer modeling of unique buildings and complexes of Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (National Research University), devoted to actual problems of applied mathematics and computational mechanics.
We consider certain spaces of functions on the circle, which naturally appear in harmonic analysis, and superposition operators on these spaces. We study the following question: which functions have the property that each their superposition with a homeomorphism of the circle belongs to a given space? We also study the multidimensional case.
We consider the spaces of functions on the m-dimensional torus, whose Fourier transform is p -summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of the exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase. The results generalize to the multidimensional case the one-dimensional results obtained by the author earlier in “Quantitative estimates in the Beurling—Helson theorem”, Sbornik: Mathematics, 201:12 (2010), 1811 – 1836.
We consider the spaces of function on the circle whose Fourier transform is p-summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase.