Методика создания комплексной экономико-математической модели массовой оценки стоимости объектов недвижимости на примере квартирного рынка города Перми
Currently, there are a number of economic and mathematical models designed for mass appraisal of real estate, tailored to their construction and performance properties, but taking no account of the evolving macroeconomic situation in the country and the world. The disadvantage of such static models is their rapid obsolescence, the need for constant updating, and unsuitability for medium-term forecasting. On the other hand, there are dynamic models that take into account the current macroeconomic situation; however, they are intended for predicting and studying the overall price situation in the real estate market, but not for mass appraisal of real estate with their variety of construction and performance properties. In this regard, the aim of this research is to develop methods of creating complex models having the properties of the static and dynamic models mentioned, i.e., taking into account construction and performance properties, as well as changing macroeconomic situation in the country and in the world. Methods and models are developed with the use of neural network technology basing on the example of the residential real estate in Perm and on statistical information of the market over the period from 2005 to 2015. In addition to its primary purpose – mass appraisal of apartments, the model is suitable for medium-term forecasting and identification of the real estate market regularities. For example, it has been found out that the price of Perm apartments as a whole tends to increase due to the rise of the oil prices, but the dependence of the cost of apartments on the price of oil is stable and direct only when the latter exceeds $ 60 – 80 per barrel. In case the volume of mortgage lending rises, the price of apartments in Perm will increase. However, the growth rate of the cost of elite four-room apartments will begin to slow down, with an increase in mortgage lending volumes above 2400 – 2700 million rubles, whereas this effect will not be apparent for cheap one- and two-bedroom apartments. Further housing construction in Perm to 1,400 sq m in the short term will not cause a noticeable change in residential property prices in Perm, which suggests that the market is still far from saturation.