Autocorrelation in an unobservable global trend: does it help to forecast market returns?
In this paper, a Kalman filter-type model is used to extract a global stochastic trend from discrete non-synchronous data on daily stock market index returns from different markets. The model allows for the autocorrelation in the global stochastic trend, which means that its increments are predictable. It does not necessarily mean the predictability of market returns, since the global trend is unobservable. The performance of the model for the forecast of market returns is explored for three markets: Japan, UK, USA.
The article describes formation and realization of the Japanese state scientific policy as the national program of development of the Japanese society. This process is considered throughout 30 years - 1970 to 2000, with a periodization of stages - decades. The analysis of the given experience has concrete practical value for our country which at all levels of the power has proclaimed the direction on development of a scientific and information society. This process is of main value from the point of view of planning, strategy, and also practice and technologies of realization.
This book is a coherent and unique collection of chapters exploring the reception and diffusion of David Ricardo’s writings in different languages. It highlights the similarities and differences between them and seeks to delineate the diffusion of Ricardo’s theory in various parts of Europe and Japan. While there may have been case studies about the reception of Ricardo’s thoughts for several countries, there has not yet been a systematic study of the diffusion process under consideration as a whole. This book caters to all scholars dedicated to the history of economic thought and to students who are interested in learning about the peculiarities of the evolution of economic theories in different countries. This book is the first of its kind, with no known predecessor, and it aims to shed light on how and why some of Ricardo’s writings were picked up and why others were not.
UK corporate tax reform, corporate tax in Russia and tax relief system were considered and described in the article. Also it was made an attempt to apply UK experience of innovative activity encouragement through corporate tax regulation to Russian economy.
The works of the 5th vonference of youn japanologists (Moscow, 2013). The articles are dedicated to the variety of themes on Japan: history, economics, intellectual history, international relations.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.