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Article

Россия в 2014-м: скатывание в воронку

Pro et Contra. 2014. Т. 63. № 3-4. С. 57-72.

The 2014 tumultuous events in Ukraine essentially reduced a number of possible trajectories of Russia’s development to one – the one that leads to its regime’s imminent degeneration and collapse. The only question is how fast the state will move along this trajectory. The country is now held hostage to the regime; the regime is hostage to Vladimir Putin, and Vladimir Putin himself is a hostage of his actions that drastically narrowed his range of options. The dramatic developments unfolding in Ukraine since the start of 2014 plunged Russia into a deep crisis, prompting the transformation of the regime according to a new scenario that can now be described as “Stalin-Medium”. Faced with the threat of local crises in different spheres, as well as stagnating and possibly deteriorating living standards, Russia started applying mobilizational model both to its economy and society as a whole. At the core of this model are self-isolation and “besieged fortress” rhetoric required for consolidating elites and citizens around the leader.