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Article

ВЛИЯНИЕ ФИНАНСОВЫХ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ НА МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ РЕЙТИНГИ РОССИЙСКИХ БАНКОВ

Экономическая политика. 2016. Т. 11. № 1. С. 177-195.
Волкова О. Н., Львова И. В.

This paper presents results of an empirical study which explores Russian banks’ ratings by the econometric modeling method. The nexus was examined between ratings assigned by Moody’s, S&P and Fitch agencies in 2010-2013 years and banks’ financial indicators. Several hypotheses concerning the most promising ways to influence bank rating are tested. According to the research, (1) the most significant factors that reveal the tendency in assigning the rating by each agency during the whole tested period are total assets, liquidity and profitability. Besides, for different agencies’ ratings in some years significant factors are a sufficiency of the capital, activity of crediting of economy, quality of a credit portfolio; (2) The significance of the banks’ capital sufficiency, asset management policy (including liquidity) and profitability varies during the whole period. The impact of these indicators on ratings is higher during the periods following and (especially) previous to financial crises than in time of relative financial stability between crises when they have smaller impact on a rating; (3) financial policy pursued by the bank management can lead to the changes in its rating, at least for some agencies. However the same methods directed on the improvement of financial indicators will lead to the different results for different ratings’ changes. The specific efforts of management will appear more productive for increase of a rating of one agency, others will be less inclined to react to changes of financial performance of banks. The adequacy of obtained results is shown by means of juxtaposing with findings of other domestic and foreign authors.