Economic determinants of communal conflict: Evidence from Indonesia
Religion, ethnicity, and politics are typical explanatory variables of violent conflicts. From an economic point of view, economic growth reduces the risk of civil war, yet the economic determinants of conflict have been little studied. In this article, we empirically study the impact of regional macroeconomic conditions on the number of violent conflicts in Indonesia, a country with potential risks of communal conflict because of the plurality of its society. We use panel data consisting of observations on 16 Indonesian regions from 2004 to 2013 to assess the impact of economic factors on conflict, reevaluating the religion effect using dynamic models (SYS GMM estimator). Our findings suggest that only the inflation rate predicts the conflict growth rate. Economic growth, economic development, poverty, and even religion, do not significantly affect the number of regional conflicts.
The article was devoted the analysis adaptation strategies of the Roman Catholic and Russian Orthodox Churches to the new social and political conditions in the last decades. The author comes to the conclusion that Russian Orthodox Church chooses strategy of conservation to the new social and political conditions and Roman Catholic Church makes decision to follow democratic adaptation strategies.
This paper puts forth a comprehensive set of measures to address the current economic crisis, prevent its further aggravation and ensure sustained and ongoing development of the Russian economy. In this study we seek to adopt the viewpoint of common sense and keep free from political and ideological bias. This is why we believe the proposed solutions should be implemented by any reasonable government irrespective of its political coloration. This text presents our vision of the Russian economy and its problems.
The article is dedicated to the functioning of the law and local government system which was created by the Ottomans to control their Balcan lands. Local conflict management is considered in the multiethnic and multiconfessional environment. The paper also focuses on the synthesis of secular and Islamic traditions in Ottoman legislature, as well as the way law influenced the historical development of the Balcan nations.
Despite the impressive economic growth in Russia between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. In this paper we study if there are any symptoms of the Dutch disease in Russia. Using a variety of Rosstat publications and the CHELEM database, we analyse the trends in production, wages and employment in the Russian manufacturing industries, and we study the behaviour of Russian imports and exports. We find that, while Russia exhibits some symptoms of the Dutch disease, e.g. the real appreciation of the rouble, the rise in real wages, the decrease in employment in manufacturing industries and the development of the services sector, the manufacturing production nonetheless increased, contradicting the theory of the Dutch disease. These trends can be explained by the gains in productivity and the recovery after the disorganisation in the 1990s, by new market opportunities for Russian products in the European Union and in CIS countries, by a growing Chinese demand for some products and by a booming internal market. Finally, investments in many manufacturing industries were largely encouraged, whereas those in the energy sector were strongly regulated, which contributed to the economic diversification.
The article presents a review of events in the financial market in 2007-2008. The author studies the interconnection between macroeconomic policy conducted by the USA monetary authorities since beginning of 1980-s till now, and the risks which have concentrated in the financial system and resulted in the crisis. The author specifies the mechanisms of the crisis deepening and broadening, and gives her own evaluation to them.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.