Интерпретация Кондорсе теории вероятности: О применении математического конструкта к области социального действия
Theory of probability created in the 17th century thanks to the works of Pascal and Fermat has been for a long time a tool of professional mathematicians and wasn’t thought as an ability to anticipate rationally a social action. In the late 18th century, Nicolas de Condorcet (1743-1794) first proposed to apply the theory of probability to the moral and political disciplines creating a basis for social prognostication. The methods developed by him allowed to predict the results of political elections and formed the basis for the future social choice theory. However, ideas of Condorcet on the limits of the application of mathematical constructs in the social and moral sciences opens up opportunities for the exit abroad of social philosophy beyond the borders of speculative metaphysics and its development as a "practical" science serving man and the community. This paper also assesses the Condorcet’s ideas in history of probability calculus as a method description for the historical chronology. Character of Condorcet thinking about the broad of the opportunities for interdisciplinary use of mathematics allow us to compare his ideas with ideas of other philosophers of the Enlightenment (Rousseau, Montesquieu, Voltaire and Diderot), as well as with a number of Kant’s reasonings. Despite the fact that Condorcet was not familiar with his work, comparing their systems of ideas about autonomous subject, his reason and freedom, history and social progress testifies not only to overcome a number of Condorcet prejudices of his time, but also on alternative version of his social, ethical and political philosophy to Kant's theory of practical reason, as well as to the philosophy of history of the Enlightenment and German rationalism.