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Article

A Mathematical Model for Predictive Computations of the Synergy Effect of NBIC Technologies and the Evaluation A Mathematical Model for Predictive Computations of the Synergy Effect of NBIC Technologies and the Evaluation of Its Influence on the Economic Growth in the First Half of the 21st Century of the 21st Century

Doklady Mathematics. 2015. Vol. 91. No. 2. P. 383-386.
Akaev A., Rudskoi A.

The present article offers a simple mathematical model for forecast calculations of the synergy effect generated by the NBIC-convergence and the evaluation of its impact on the economic growth in the first half of the 21st century. We demonstrate that the NBIC-technologies (due to a powerful synergy effect) will lead to a significant acceleration of technological growth rates that will exceed the growth rates achieved at the upswing phase of the 5th Kondratieff wave (1982–2006) on the basis of the microelectronic technologies. Using the example of the USA economy, it is shown that in this country the annual technological growth rates will increase up to 3.3% (as compared with 2.3% per year in the 1980s), whereas the annual economic growth rates in the 2030s will be as high as 3.6%. Thus, we will see the replacement of the deceleration trend that was observed within the world economy in the recent forty years with an accelerating trend.