Критические заметки по поводу демографических публикаций А.В. Коротаева и соавторов
Critical notes concerning debatable or unfounded claims casting doubt on facts and formulas discovered by the author in a number of the demographic works of A.V. Korotaev and his coauthors devoted to demographic problems of modern Russia and published during the last 10 years.
The article views the recent fertility dynamics in a number of Tropical African countries for which the necessary data is available. It is shown that in the majority of these countries fertility started to decline in the mid-1970-s – early 1990s. However, in the mid-1990s and early 2000s a mass fertility stall occurred throughout the great part of Tropical Africa. Importantly, in most cases fertility got stalled at very high levels, more than 5 children per woman. A decade-long absence of fertility decline bears serious threats of demographic explosions. We present some ways of avoiding the catastrophic scenarios.
This article considers the changes in the major proximate determinants of fertility in Russia within the framework of demographic transition theory and Bongaarts approach to fertility analysis. After World War II Russian fertility became a fully controlled process. The complex interplay of abortion and contraception during the Soviet period resulted in a very high abortion level. The Russian government has almost never supported and promoted family planning as an alternative to abortion. However couples' preferences for few offspring appeared more powerful than the will of authorities. Current trends show that despite the lack of governmental support society itself is evolving towards more humanistic and effective birth control. Estimates based on recent surveys' data confirm the validity of official statistics showing there is a decline in the number of abortions.
This article analyses the transformation in the mode of partnership formation in seven countries of Eastern Europe. The aim of the study is to provide an up-to-date account of the switch from direct marriage to non-marital cohabitation as it has progressed from the 1960s to the mid-2000s, using data from the Generations and Gender Surveys. Unlike previous studies, we examined the extent to which cross-national variations in the onset and scale of transformation characteristic of the Second Demographic Transition, could be linked to nuptiality regimes that existed in the region in the 19th and early 20th centuries. With few exceptions, the results support the notion of correspondence between historical and contemporary patterns. Forerunners in the transition to partnership formation outside marriage tend to come from areas which exhibited a late/low prevalence of marriage; the latecomers are typically situated east of the Hajnal line. The article discusses plausible mechanisms underpinning the observed continuity.