The Application of Conflict Measure to Estimating Incoherence of Analyst's Forecasts about the Cost of Shares of Russian Companies
Measuring indirect importance of various attributes is a very common task in marketing analysis for which researchers use correlation and regression techniques. We have listed and illustrated some common problems with widely used latent importance measures. A more theoretically sound approach - the Shapley Value decomposition - was applied to a rich data set of US internet stores. The use of store-level data instead of respondent-level data allowed us to reveal the factors, which are powerful in explaining, why some stores have higher rates of willingness to make repeat purchases than the others. By confronting the indirect importance and performance measures for three different internet stores, we have revealed strengths, weaknesses, attributes that the company should bring customers' attention to and attributes that do not require immediate improvement.
The conflict measure and index of decreasing of igno-rance in frame of Dempster-Shafer theory are intro-duced. Those functionals are analyzed on the bodies of evidences of special type. It is shown that the great correlation between the bodies of evidence is a sufficient condition of decreasing of ignorance after the applying of combining rule. The relationships between the measure of conflict and the index of decreasing of ignorance in the case of different types of evidences and the application of different combining rules were investigated.
Some general schemes and examples of aggregation of two belief functions into a single belief function are considered in this paper. We find some sufficient conditions of change of ignorance when evidences are combined with the help of various rules. It is shown that combining rules can be regarded as pessimistic or optimistic depending on the sign of the change of ignorance after applying.
The conflict measures induced by the conjunctive and disjunctive combining rules are studied in this paper in the framework of evidence theory. The coherence of conflict measures with combining rules is introduced and studied. In addition, the structure of conjunctive and disjunctive conflict measures is studied in the paper. In particular, it is shown that the metric and entropy components can be distinguished in such measures. Moreover, these components are changed differently after combining of the bodies of evidence.
Measuring indirect importance of various attributes is a very common task in marketing analysis for which researchers use correlation and regression techniques. We have listed and illustrated some common problems with widely used latent importance measures. A more theoretically sound approach – the Shapley Value decomposition – was applied to a rich data set of US internet stores. The use of store-level data instead of respondent-level data allowed us to reveal the factors, which are powerful in explaining, why some stores have higher rates of willingness to make repeat purchases than the others. By confronting the indirect importance and performance measures for three different internet stores, we have revealed strengths, weaknesses, attributes that the company should bring customers’ attention to and attributes improvement of which is not of a high priority.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Belief Functions, BELIEF 2018, held in Compiègne, France, in September 2018.The 33 revised regular papers presented in this book were carefully selected and reviewed from 73 submissions. The papers were solicited on theoretical aspects (including for example statistical inference, mathematical foundations, continuous belief functions) as well as on applications in various areas including classification, statistics, data fusion, network analysis and intelligent vehicles.
This paper is devoted to modern approaches to the estimation of external conflict in the theory of evidence based on axioms. The conflict measure is defined on the set of beliefs obtained from several sources of information. It is shown that the conflict measure should be a monotone set function with respect to sets of beliefs. Some robust procedures for evaluation of conflict measure that are stable to small changes in evidences are introduced and discussed. The analysis of conflict among forecasts about the value of shares of Russian companies of investment banks is presented. In this analysis the conflict measure estimates inconsistency of recommendations of investment banks, while the Shapley values of this measure on the set of evidences characterize the contribution of each investment bank to the overall conflict. The relationship between conflict and precision of forecasts is also investigated.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.