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The Application of Conflict Measure to Estimating Incoherence of Analyst's Forecasts about the Cost of Shares of Russian Companies
P. 1113–1122.
This paper is devoted to modern approaches to the estimation of external conflict in the theory of evidence based on axioms. The conflict measure is defined on the set of beliefs obtained from several sources of information. It is shown that the conflict measure should be a monotone set function with respect to sets of beliefs. Some robust procedures for evaluation of conflict measure that are stable to small changes in evidences are introduced and discussed. The analysis of conflict among forecasts about the value of shares of Russian companies of investment banks is presented. In this analysis the conflict measure estimates inconsistency of recommendations of investment banks, while the Shapley values of this measure on the set of evidences characterize the contribution of each investment bank to the overall conflict. The relationship between conflict and precision of forecasts is also investigated.
In book
Vol. Volume 55. , Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2015.
Tamara Teplova, Tatiana Sokolova, David Kissa, Resources Policy 2023 Vol. 86 No. B Article 104253
The purpose of the paper is to reveal the impact of different environment, social, and corporate governance (ESG) indicators on stock liquidity in the emerging Russian market, which is heavily dominated by the natural resources sector. We first apply Explainable Artificial Intelligence (AI) to identify and rank determining factors for stock liquidity on a sample ...
Added: October 23, 2023
Lepskiy A., , in: Data Analysis and Optimization. In Honor of Boris Mirkin's 80th Birthday.: Springer, 2023. Ch. 12 P. 179–190.
The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence considers data that have a frequency-set nature (the so-called body of evidence). In recent years, there has been interest in clustering such objects to approximate them with simpler bodies of evidence, to analyze the inconsistency of information, reducing the computational complexity of processing algorithms, revealing the structure of the set ...
Added: September 29, 2023
Ignatov D. I., Kwuida L., Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence 2022 Vol. 90 No. 11 P. 1197–1222
We propose the usage of two power indices from cooperative game theory and public choice theory for ranking attributes of closed sets, namely intents of formal concepts (or closed itemsets). The introduced indices are related to extensional concept stability and are also based on counting of generators, especially of those that contain a selected attribute. ...
Added: January 31, 2023
Petrosyan L., Yeung D., Pankratova Y., Proceedings of the Steklov Institute of Mathematics 2021 Vol. 27 No. 3 P. 286–295
In the paper, the differential games on networks with partner sets are considered. The payoffs of a given player depend on his actions and the actions of the players from his partner set. The cooperative version of the game is proposed, and a special type of characteristic function is introduced. It is proved the constructed ...
Added: November 1, 2021
Petrosyan L., Yeung D., Pankratova Y., , in: Mathematical Optimization Theory and Operations Research: Recent Trends: 20th International Conference, MOTOR 2021, Irkutsk, Russia, July 5–10, 2021, Revised Selected Papers.: Cham: Springer, 2021. P. 403–416.
A class of cooperative differential games on networks is considered. It is supposed that players have the possibility to cut connections with neighbors at each time instant of the game. This gives the possibility to compute the values of a characteristic function for each coalition as a joint payoff of players from this coalition without ...
Added: November 1, 2021
Lepskiy A., , in: Belief Functions: Theory and Applications: 6th International Conference, BELIEF 2021, Shanghai, China, October 15–19, 2021, ProceedingsVol. 12915.: Springer, 2021. P. 197–206.
Added: October 20, 2021
Grinikh A., Petrosyan L., , in: 13th Multiconference on Control Problems (MCCP 2020) 6-8 October 2020, Saint Petersburg, RussiaVol. 1864.: IOP Publishing, 2021. Ch. 012061.
Added: September 29, 2021
Kuzyutin D., Lipko I., Pankratova Yaroslavna et al., , in: Frontiers of Dynamic Games Game Theory and Management, St. Petersburg, 2019.: Birkhauser/Springer, 2020. Ch. 10 P. 141–159.
To enforce the long-term cooperation in a multistage multicriteria game we use the imputation distribution procedure (IDP) based approach. We mainly focus on such useful properties of the IDP like “reward immediately after the move” assumption, time consistency inequality, efficiency and non-negativity constraint. To overcome the problem of negative payments along the optimal cooperative trajectory ...
Added: January 29, 2021
Kuzyutin D., Gromova E., Smirnova N., , in: Mathematical Optimization Theory and Operations Research, 19th International Conference, MOTOR 2020, Novosibirsk, Russia, July 6–10, 2020, (Т. 12095).: Cham: Springer, 2020. P. 184–199.
We consider a class of multistage multicriteria games in extensive form with chance moves where the players cooperate to maximize their expected joint vector payoff. Assuming that the players have agreed to accept the minimal sum of relative deviations rule in order to choose a unique Pareto optimal payoffs vector, we prove the time consistency ...
Added: October 31, 2020
Antipov E. A., Pokryshevskaya E. B., Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management 2020 No. 19 P. 355–364
Forecasting demand and understanding sales drivers are one of the most important tasks in retail analytics. However, traditionally, linear models and/or models with a small number of predictors have been predominantly used in sales modeling. Taking into account that real-world demand is naturally determined by complex substitution and complementation patterns among a large number of ...
Added: October 31, 2020
Ignatov D. I., Kwuida L., , in: Ontologies and Concepts in Mind and Machine. 25th International Conference on Conceptual Structures, ICCS 2020.: Springer, 2020. P. 90–102.
Among the family of rule-based classification models, there are classifiers based on conjunctions of binary attributes. For example, the JSM-method of automatic reasoning (named after John Stuart Mill) was formulated as a classification technique in terms of intents of formal concepts as classification hypotheses. These JSM-hypotheses already represent an interpretable model since the respective conjunctions ...
Added: October 30, 2020
Ignatov D. I., Kwuida L., , in: Proceedings of the Fifthteenth International Conference on Concept Lattices and Their ApplicationsVol. 2668.: CEUR-WS.org, 2020. P. 259–271.
We propose the usage of two power indices from cooperative game theory and public choice theory for ranking attributes of closed sets, namely intents of formal concepts (or closed itemsets). The introduced indices are related to extensional concept stability and based on counting generators, especially those that contain a selected attribute. The introduction of such ...
Added: October 30, 2020
V. V. Gusev, Automation and Remote Control 2017 Vol. 10 No. 78 P. 1883–1891
В работе исследуется простая модель кооперативной игры патрулирования с коалиционной структурой. Показано, что векторы Шепли, Оуэна и Ауманна-Дрезе в рассматриваемой игре совпадают друг с другом при нечетном количестве патрулирующих. ...
Added: October 14, 2020
Decompositional approach for evaluation of internal conflict in the framework of the evidence theory
Lepskiy A., Нечеткие системы и мягкие вычисления 2020 Vol. 15 No. 1 P. 43–63
The concept of conflict is one of the central in the belief functions theory. There are differences between external and internal conflicts. A new method for estimating the internal conflict is proposed and studied in this paper. This method assumes that the original body of evidence was derived from simpler evidence using some combining rule. ...
Added: September 17, 2020
Aleksandra L. Grinikh, , in: Contributions to Game Theory and Management Volume XIIVol. XII.: ., 2019. P. 151–158.
A cooperative finite-stage dynamic n-person prisoner's dilemma is considered. The time-consistent subset of the core is proposed. The Shapley value for the stochastic model of the n-person prisoner's dilemma is calculated in explicit form. ...
Added: October 31, 2019
Kuzyutin D., Yaroslavna Pankratova, Светлов Р., , in: Frontiers of Dynamic Games, Game Theory and Management, St. Petersburg, 2018.: Birkhäuser, 2019. P. 85–102.
We deal with multistage multicriteria games in extensive form and employ so-called “A-subgame” concept to examine dynamical properties of some non-cooperative and cooperative solutions. It is proved that if we take into account only the active players at each A-subgame the set of all strong Pareto equilibria is time consistent but does not satisfy dynamical ...
Added: October 5, 2019
Lepskiy A., Smolev V., , in: Atlantis Studies in Uncertainty Modelling, Proceedings of the 2019 Conference of the International Fuzzy Systems Association and the European Society for Fuzzy Logic and Technology (EUSFLAT 2019)Vol. 1.: Atlantis Press, 2019. P. 321–327.
Added: September 29, 2019
Bronevich A., Lepskiy A., , in: Proceedings of the 11th Conference of the European Society for Fuzzy Logic and Technology (EUSFLAT 2019)Vol. 1.: P.: Atlantis Press, 2019. P. 328–333.
In real applications, sometimes it is necessary to evaluate inner or external conflict of pieces of evidence. However, these numerical values cannot give us explanations why this conflict occurs. Thus, we need deeper analysis of available information. In the paper, we propose the clusterization of a given evidence on pieces of evidence in a way ...
Added: September 25, 2019
Kuzyutin D., Громова Е. В., Pankratova Y., Operations Research Letters 2018 Vol. 46 No. 6 P. 557–562
We use the imputation distribution procedure approach to ensure sustainable cooperation in a multistage game with vector payoffs. In order to choose a particular Pareto optimal and time consistent strategy profile and the corresponding cooperative trajectory we suggest a refined leximin algorithm. Using this algorithm we design a characteristic function for a multistage multicriteria game. Furthermore, we provide sufficient conditions for strong time consistency of the core. ...
Added: November 6, 2018
Musegaas M., Dietzenbacher B., Borm P., Frontiers in Neuroinformatics 2016 Vol. 10 No. 51 P. 1–5
We consider the problem of computing the influence of a neuronal structure in a brain network. Abraham et al. (2006) computed this influence by using the Shapley value of a coalitional game corresponding to a directed network as a rating. Kötter et al. (2007) applied this rating to large-scale brain networks, in particular to the macaque visual cortex ...
Added: October 12, 2018
Kondratev Aleksei, Mazalov V., , in: Intelligent Information and Database Systems. ACIIDS 2017. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 10192.: Springer, 2017. P. 691–700.
This paper considers the problem of electing candidates for a certain position based on ballots filled by voters. We suggest a voting procedure using cooperative game theory methods. For this, it is necessary to construct a characteristic function via the preference profile of voters. The Shapley value serves as the ranking method. The winner is ...
Added: October 2, 2018