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Regular version of the site

Article

How to optimize fertility and prevent humanitarian catastrophes in Tropical Africa

African Studies in Russia. 2014. No. 6. P. 94-107.
Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A.

The article views the recent fertility dynamics in a number of Tropical African countries for which the necessary data is available. It is shown that in the majority of these countries fertility started to decline in the mid-1970-s – early 1990s. However, in the mid-1990s and early 2000s a mass fertility stall occurred throughout the great part of Tropical Africa. Importantly, in most cases fertility got stalled at very high levels, more than 5 children per woman. A decade-long absence of fertility decline bears serious threats of demographic explosions. We present some ways of avoiding the catastrophic scenarios.