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  • Влияние неопределенности фондового рынка на инвестиционную активность российских компаний через формирование цен на базовые активы

Article

Влияние неопределенности фондового рынка на инвестиционную активность российских компаний через формирование цен на базовые активы

Корпоративные финансы. 2012. № 24 (4). С. 46-57.
Черкасова В. А., Мочалов Д. С.

Investment activity is a major factor of economic and innovative progress of the companies because due to the capital investments the growth possibilities of the company are created and realized, the same as increments of the investments and an increase in the value of the company. Thus different uncertainty, which is capable to influence essentially the investments of the companies and their efficiency, becomes an important object for researches.

In this article the analysis of influence of the uncertainty was carried out, which arises on the forward market at formation of the prices for derivative financial instruments, a base asset for which is the main production of the large Russian extracting companies, which make an economic base of the country.

The level of development of investment planning is at insufficient level in such companies when the simplified models are used for creation of investment budgets. It leads to the increase of investments at several times during the implementation of the project.

In the last decade the financial markets began to play a significant role in activity of the russian companies, especially in the large companies, who want to take a stand at the international markets. Thus it would not be correct to be limited by consideration only classical stock market, where a trade of shares and bonds takes place, because rather young market of derivative financial instruments even in the western countries is also capable to make a considerable impact on activity of the companies and hence demands careful studying.

In the given circumstances the detection of the general regularities and dependences is necessary, and also the development of forecasting models, which would make planning process more exact. The correct prediction of future financial flows of the company can essentially increase the efficiency of investments of the company as the size of available funds will be estimated more adequately that will allow to provide the financing of important projects in due volume without distracting funds for significantly small projects in a situation when there can be a shortage of financing.

The value of this research is that on the forward market the prices, which are establishing on derivative financial instruments, are the expectations of future prices for base assets of such derivatives.

Such data are the aggregated forecast of future situation that the companies are not only able to, but should take into consideration at formation of the investment policy.

The uncertainty, which was expressed as volatility of the prices of derivative financial instruments, was investigated on existence of defining factors. The regularities revealed in this research, and also the carried-out imitating modeling of recurrence of uncertainty fluctuations, can help managers of the companies with adoption of right investment decisions and with the decision on a delay of implementation of the project in a situation of high predicted market uncertainty.

Investment activity is a major factor of economic and innovative progress of the companies because due to the capital investments the growth possibilities of the company are created and realized, the same as increments of the investments and an increase in the value of the company. Thus different uncertainty, which is capable to influence essentially the investments of the companies and their efficiency, becomes an important object for researches.

In this article the analysis of influence of the uncertainty was carried out, which arises on the forward market at formation of the prices for derivative financial instruments, a base asset for which is the main production of the large Russian extracting companies, which make an economic base of the country.

The level of development of investment planning is at insufficient level in such companies when the simplified models are used for creation of investment budgets. It leads to the increase of investments at several times during the implementation of the project.

In the last decade the financial markets began to play a significant role in activity of the russian companies, especially in the large companies, who want to take a stand at the international markets. Thus it would not be correct to be limited by consideration only classical stock market, where a trade of shares and bonds takes place, because rather young market of derivative financial instruments even in the western countries is also capable to make a considerable impact on activity of the companies and hence demands careful studying.

In the given circumstances the detection of the general regularities and dependences is necessary, and also the development of forecasting models, which would make planning process more exact. The correct prediction of future financial flows of the company can essentially increase the efficiency of investments of the company as the size of available funds will be estimated more adequately that will allow to provide the financing of important projects in due volume without distracting funds for significantly small projects in a situation when there can be a shortage of financing.

The value of this research is that on the forward market the prices, which are establishing on derivative financial instruments, are the expectations of future prices for base assets of such derivatives.

Such data are the aggregated forecast of future situation that the companies are not only able to, but should take into consideration at formation of the investment policy.

The uncertainty, which was expressed as volatility of the prices of derivative financial instruments, was investigated on existence of defining factors. The regularities revealed in this research, and also the carried-out imitating modeling of recurrence of uncertainty fluctuations, can help managers of the companies with adoption of right investment decisions and with the decision on a delay of implementation of the project in a situation of high predicted market uncertainty.