Сценарии развития нефтеперерабатывающей и нефтехимической отрасли
The article considers the global trends of refining and petrochemical sectors, which have significant influence on the supply and demand structure of refining industry in Russian. The scenario approach has allowed analyzing the possible development of research field.
The monograph analyses the world oil market transformation across the entire value-added chain. The study focuses on the following issues: the role of financial market in the US tight oil sector development under different oil price environment; adjusting corporate strategies of the world largest private vertically integrated oil companies to new market demands; functional role of global oil traders at the world oil market; world refining transformation under the influence of «shale revolution» and oil demand shift towards Asia Pacific region; restructuring of global flows of crude oil and petroleum products in accordance with the new demand-supply configuration; correction in the globalization strategy of the national state company Petrobras (Brazil); perspectives of passenger car transport electrification in India.
The paper analyzes the impact of changes in tax regimes on comparative export profitability of oil and main petroleum products. It considers the dynamics of export profitability of oil and petroleum products based on the annual data for 2001—2010, the quarterly data for 2011 and through the first quarter of 2012. The paper also examines how the forthcoming changes in tax legislation aimed at increasing the complexity of refining affect the profitability of oil sector exports. The analysis demonstrates that tax measures alone are not sufficient and might even be counterproductive.
Any company in market economy faces with a problem of acceptance of strategic decisions, under conditions of uncertainty concerning the future. Under conditions of economic crisis when level of uncertainty increases, this problem becomes especially actual. One of methods for reduction the influence of the uncertainty factor by the company activity, received a new push to development in second half of twentieth century, is the scenario approach. It gives responsibility to analyze the influence of possible changes of factors and their combinations on company's activity and to make a decision on adequacy of strategy of company's development and possibility of its realization in the given economic situation. Given article offers one of possible techniques of the scenario approach with reference to realization of strategy of the company, based on the algorithm within the limits of model of scenarios research, developed by Bryant&Lempert (2010). Simulation model, on the basis of which scenarios are developed, can consider both internal strategic variables, and a considerable amount of external factors which influence company's activity.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.