Цены российских банков перед кризисом 2008 г.: пузырь или реальный опцион?.
Аt the turn of 2008 Russian banks were traded at hefty P/BV multiples in the range of 3 to 4. That looks like a bubble. This paper is an attempt to reconstruct possible rational logic behind this value which related to a possible real option. Two approaches are employed: decision tree analysis and a binomial model. Following analysis shows that a real option was limited to a select set of investors. Thus suspicion of a local banking bubble is not refuted.
Current processes of globalization and integration of the companies into the world economy necessitated the unification of financial reporting to the third parties and external users, its transparency and uniformity of financial calculations and calculation procedures. International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) today play the role of a certain standard or an example of how international companies have to generate financial reports. This imposes certain obligations on the reporting procedure. Thus, on the one hand companies operate under strict rules of how and that they can be reported. On the other hand, oil and gas companies implement large risky projects, which feasibility evaluation is often difficult in the conditions of high risk and lack of the information. This situation is typical for offshore fields, particularly in the Arctic offshore, where the degree of exploration is extremely low. The present article is concerned with the real options valuation of offshore fields in the Arctic. The main point of the article is an example of the subsequent correlation of the price value of the real options and possible costs for exploration and evaluation of the field resource potential in accordance with the principles of IFRS 6 – «Exploration for and Evaluation of Mineral Resources», an accounting standard that is core to the understanding of accounting in the mining and oil and gas industries. IFRS 6 includes modified impairment testing of exploration and evaluation assets and replaced several others international standards as IFRS 8, IFRS 16 and IFRS 36. This approach allows us to demonstrate the applicabilityof ROV (Real Options Valuation) method and its application to offshore projects with a high degree of uncertainty, carried out at an early stage and, in particular, for the Arctic offshore projects. For illustrative purposes two possible deposits were taken on the shelf of the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea. For these two illustrative examples of the fields in the above sea waters in accordance with the climatic conditions, taking into account the current tax and investment regimes three types of option were designed: to stop the project, to delay the project and to expand the project. The main purpose of this work is to show the applicability of various models of real options for offshore development projects through the examples in the Arctic seas at the stage of prospecting and exploration. There is also the objective to show how the techniques of project management can be agreed under the rules of reporting standards reporting for companies operating according to IFRS 6 standard.
The paper deals with the influence of the growth opportunities on the company‟ investment policy. The analysis is based on the real options concept. It is shown that in the presence of valuable growth opportunities traditional methods of investment analysis can lead to the bias in the estimate of the investment project efficiency if the risks of the project are assumed to be equal to the risks of company's assets-in-place.
In the paper some prominent features of a modern financial system are studied using the model of leverage dynamics. Asset securitization is considered as a major factor increasing aggregate debt and hence systems uncertainty and instability. A simple macrofinancial model includes a logistic equation of leverage dynamics that reveals origins of a financial bubble, thus corresponding closely to the Minsky financial instability hypothesis. Using ROA, ROE, and the interest rate as parameters, the model provides wide spectrum of leverage and default probability trajectories for the short and long run.
In the article author propose approach to client's base generation based on decision tree method. This approach allows taking into account requirements to optimization of customers' selection based on several criteria. Method is illustrated on Logistics Company.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.