Особенности формирования деловых тенденций на рынке финансовых услуг в условиях стагнационного сжатия экономики
The article presents an overview of business trends in the financial services sector, based on the results of a survey held in 2013 by Higher School of Economics jointly with the Information and Publishing Center "Statistics of Russia". The methodology is based on an international practice of sectoral business tendencies monitoring taking into account peculiarities of the Russian econ-omy at the currant stage. More than 2.6 thousand top managers of financial institutions were questioned in order to obtain their estimates of the level and changes of key indicators. The analysis of opinions, sentiment and expectations of economic agents allowed to characterize the features and development trends of the sector in 2013, to identify the dominant constraints, as well as to form a short-term forecast for the first half of 2014. The study revealed that despite the stagnation of the Russian economy and ambiguous prospects for the world economy, financial market in general, according to his agents’ estimation, still retains stability and potential for fur-ther development. Endogenous systemic factors, mainly the uncertainty of the economic situa-tion in Russia, as well as legal and institutional problems, made more negative impact on finan-cial market than global environment.
The work contains diagnosing оf the problems in the Russian domestic savings; detailed analysis of 27 foreign pension systems in the world and instruments of development policy in collective investments in the United States, the European Union and the BRICS countries; quantitative study of factors affecting the level of development of pension funds and collective investments in 50 countries.
The article deals with longevity risk, which is faced by non-state pension funds, and possible methods of its management. Longevity risk arises from uncertainty in future mortality trends and is related with the guaranteed lifelong pension payments. The emphasis is put on the impact of this risk on solvency of non-state pension funds. Results of the estimation show, that the effect is quite significant and longevity risk has to be controlled. Two possible methods of risk management for longevity risk are discussed: special reserves and life expectancy forecasting.
The article gives the main ways of practical realization of risks, which appear during the process of cooperation between non-state pension funds and commercial banks on the basis of deposit agreements. Methods and mechanisms of prevention and elimination of risks’ realization are aggregated. The article summarizes the important experience that can be useful during the process of developing a non-state pension fund’s investment strategy.
There is a sharp contradiction between public policies to support SMEs and features of Russian national SMEs. Using western experience in Russia, doing some bright projects to stimulate small businesses was important twenty years ago. Quantitative and qualitative parameters of SMEs in Russia lag behind most countries, largely due to the structure of its economy with the traditional dominance of large enterprises
and the prevailing business climate. Small and medium-sized business in Russia is not innovative, does not perform antitrust function and does not create many
jobs. Small and medium-sized business generates a positive competitive environment. But the importance of SMEs in Russia should not be exaggerated. The scale of subcontracting and franchising with independent small businesses in our country is extremely small. It happened so that the Russian economic policy and the leading part of the national political establishment were in a subordinate position in relation to the interests of a narrow circle of large businesses, mainly engaged in production and export of the most important natural resources. Manufacturing, infrastructural and other facilities of big business, its supply and marketing relations and, most importantly, its long-term economic interests focus on large enterprises and, with few exceptions, show no interest for the SMEs sector. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the Russian system of economic institutions encourages big business mostly. It also proves an essential specific situation of small and medium-sized businesses in Russia. The development of Russian small and medium-sized business entirely depends on the state of the economy and the business climate in the country. The business climate in Russia does not correspond to the needs of small and medium-sized businesses. Measures to improve the business climate can potentially help Russian small and medium-sized businesses much more than the existing costly system meant to support them. It is obvious that the whole Russian system for SMEs support, fold increase in the federal budget to support Russian SMEs occurred in the recent years, is unable to compensate for a generally unfavorable business environment in Russia. It is necessary to improve the quality of investment, business climate and institutions in Russia. The real growth of the Russian SMEs can be expected only with the modernization, new industrialization of the Russian economy and business climate improvements.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.