Динамика расхождений статистики внешней торговли РФ: влияние санкций

Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика. 2026. Т. 61. № 2. С. 340–357.

Родичев А. И., Zinyakov Y.

This paper analyzes discrepancies between direct and mirror data in Russia's foreign trade statistics over the period of 2003-2024. Special attention is given to assessing the impact of sanction policies on the level of statistical discrepancies, which reflect trade costs, manipulations in customs and tax reporting, as well as structural changes in logistics and the organization of international trade flows. To achieve the research objectives, the authors employ panel regression methods with fixed effects, logit models for estimating the probability of significant discrepancies, and the Chow test for identifying structural shifts in data. The analysis is based on data from Trade Map, the Federal Customs Service, and the Central Bank of Russia, allowing for the identification of both long-term trends and short-term crises associated with the introduction of sanctions in 2014 and 2022. The findings indicate a persistent increase in statistical discrepancies, confirming that sanction measures and related changes in accounting methodologies significantly affect the accuracy of trade flow reporting. The results have practical implications for improving statistical control systems, developing measures to reduce trade costs, and ensuring a more accurate assessment of foreign trade activity amid the expansion of sanction policies. Additionally, the findings are crucial for enhancing statistical monitoring methodologies, increasing transparency in trade operations, and effectively countering manipulations in foreign trade under economic restrictions. They also emphasize the need to account for the identified trends of increasing discrepancies when using mirror statistics as a substitute source of information on foreign trade flows.

Keywords: внешняя торговля, торговые барьеры, торговые санкции, зеркальная статистика

Publication based on the results of: Restructuring of the Russian Companies, Industries and Markets in Response to New Global Challenges (2025)