Тарифная политика Трампа VS мировая торговая система

Мировая экономика и международные отношения. 2026. Т. 70. № 5. С. 44–53.

Portanskiy A.

The article examines Trump’s tariff policy, proclaimed at the beginning of his second presidential term and its negative impact on the stability of the global economy. It is emphasized that the practice of manipulating import duties used by the Trump administration fundamentally contradicts the basic ideas on which the Multilateral trading system has been built since the early 1940s, in particular, predictability of mutual market access, and therefore cannot but have a destabilizing effect on international trade. Washington’s tariff leaping under the pretext of “national security” is fraught with undermining global trade norms that have been formed over eight decades. The concept of “reciprocal tariffs” and the attempts of the 47th president’s administration to justify the increase in import duties have been criticized. Specifically, two conceptual attempts by officials close to the president, namely, the head of the Council of Economic Advisers to the President, Stephen Miran, and the USTR Jamieson Greer, to create a legal basis for raising tariffs and propose an American concept for a new International economic order, have been examined. Both attempts, which ignore the existing institutional system of trade regulation and are openly US-centric, incompatible with the interests of other countries, have been shown to be untenable. It has been suggested that if the increased tariffs in the US remain in place for a long time (for example, at least until the end of Trump’ presidential term in 2029), this will entail a restructuring of global supply chains that have been formed over decades, which in turn will lead to widespread losses. At the same time, if universal trade rules continue to be undermined, the outlook for the Global economy will deteriorate. Clearly, the global economy and trade are unlikely to survive for long without universal rules. It is highly likely that after Trump leaves office the new US administration will try to return to universal trade regulation mechanisms and revive institutions, taking into account their reform.

Keywords: ВТО, WTO, Бреттон-Вудская система, таможенные­ пошлины, tariffs, торговые войны, Д. Трамп, международный экономический порядок, D. Trump, international economic orde, Bretton-Woods System