ЧЛЕНСТВО РОССИИ В ВТО: ОЦЕНКА ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЯ НА ВНЕШНЮЮ ТОРГОВЛЮ

Вопросы экономики. 2023. № 7. С. 100–114.

Kalinin A. M.

The paper assesses some of the consequences of Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Whereas much discussion about its costs and benefits happened during the WTO negotiations and in the first years after the accession, there was little said on the real consequences afterwards. The aim of the research is to assess the degree of fulfillment of the accession expectations after a decade. The research method is the analysis of panel data on the world trade for 2000-2019 (an econometric model based on the gravity model of foreign trade). It has been established that the WTO accession ultimately benefited for Russian foreign trade. However, this effect has been offset by increased political tensions since 2014. The objections to the WTO also turned out to be predominantly justified. The most positive economic consequences of the WTO exist for exporters of low value added goods. The criticism of the WTO participation by machine builders is understandable: although they are among the beneficiaries, the effects on exports and imports are comparable.

Keywords: внешняя торговля, Всемирная торговая организация (ВТО), foreign trade, гравитационная модель, WTO, gravity model of international trade