Деловые настроения в банковском секторе в 2013 г.: ранние сигналы кризиса или дестабилизация?
The article presents an overview of business trends in the banking sector based on results of business tendencies surveys of 875 credit institutions in 22 regions of Russia, held in November 2013 by Higher School of Economics jointly with the Information and Publishing Center "Statistics of Russia". The survey program provides key indicators of banking activities level and changes estimated by respondents. According to the results, detailed analysis of the views and attitudes of credit institutions leaders was carried out, mainly to answer the question: how possible development in the credit and deposit market under scenario of 2008 in nearest time? Position of respondents, largely offsetting with the main quantitative parameters of banking statistics, is primarily a reflection of the impact of macro environment and main banking regulator actions on the banking sector in the considered period.
The book contains articles considering various aspects of the analysis: macroeconomic, regional, sectoral, cross-cultural, etc. The current problems are analyzed: new ways of the development of space activities in the form of public-private partnerships, the opportunities for social responsibility programs in various sectors of the economy, as well as the sustainability of economic growth in resource-dependent countries.
There is a sharp contradiction between public policies to support SMEs and features of Russian national SMEs. Using western experience in Russia, doing some bright projects to stimulate small businesses was important twenty years ago. Quantitative and qualitative parameters of SMEs in Russia lag behind most countries, largely due to the structure of its economy with the traditional dominance of large enterprises
and the prevailing business climate. Small and medium-sized business in Russia is not innovative, does not perform antitrust function and does not create many
jobs. Small and medium-sized business generates a positive competitive environment. But the importance of SMEs in Russia should not be exaggerated. The scale of subcontracting and franchising with independent small businesses in our country is extremely small. It happened so that the Russian economic policy and the leading part of the national political establishment were in a subordinate position in relation to the interests of a narrow circle of large businesses, mainly engaged in production and export of the most important natural resources. Manufacturing, infrastructural and other facilities of big business, its supply and marketing relations and, most importantly, its long-term economic interests focus on large enterprises and, with few exceptions, show no interest for the SMEs sector. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the Russian system of economic institutions encourages big business mostly. It also proves an essential specific situation of small and medium-sized businesses in Russia. The development of Russian small and medium-sized business entirely depends on the state of the economy and the business climate in the country. The business climate in Russia does not correspond to the needs of small and medium-sized businesses. Measures to improve the business climate can potentially help Russian small and medium-sized businesses much more than the existing costly system meant to support them. It is obvious that the whole Russian system for SMEs support, fold increase in the federal budget to support Russian SMEs occurred in the recent years, is unable to compensate for a generally unfavorable business environment in Russia. It is necessary to improve the quality of investment, business climate and institutions in Russia. The real growth of the Russian SMEs can be expected only with the modernization, new industrialization of the Russian economy and business climate improvements.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.