Последствия введения пограничного углеродного регулирования в Китае для российской экономики: анализ на основе GTAP-моделей

Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2025. Т. 29. № 3. С. 462–493.

Давыдова А. Ю., Makarov I. A., Smolovik E. V.

The paper assesses the impact of China’s carbon regulation on the Russian economy. It examines the scenario which is not highly probable but has been discussed in Russia—namely, the potential introduction of carbon border regulation on imports of carbon-intensive products by China. The study employs a scenario-based approach using computable general equilibrium models GTAP-Power and GTAP-E, developed by the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The GTAP 10 data are used to calibrate the model, and preliminarily adjusted to Western sanctions imposed on Russian trade flows in 2022–2023. The results indicate that the introduction of carbon border regulation by China has virtually no impact on the output of Russia’s energy-intensive industries. The non-ferrous metal sector increases exports due to the relatively low carbon intensity of Russian production compared to other countries, whereas the chemical industry appears to be sensitive to the hypothetical implementation of China’s carbon border regulation. The introduction of a domestic carbon price in Russia mitigates the risks for exports to China; however, it leads to a relatively small decline in real GDP—up to -0.06%—at a carbon price of $20 per ton of CO₂ equivalent (in 2014 prices). The most sensitive sectors to national carbon regulation include coal production, natural gas extraction, and iron and steel industry.

Keywords: выбросы СО2, вычислимые модели общего равновесия, пограничное углеродное регулирование, система торговли разрешениями на выбросы, углеродоемкость производства

Publication based on the results of: Analysis of the long-term impacts of climate change, areas of adaptation and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Russia and its BRICS and SCO partners (2025)