Оценка вероятности банкротства банка
Финансы и кредит. 2013. № 27 (555). С. 47-58.
Emelyanov A. M., Брюхова О. О.
This article presents the results of empirical research dedicated to default prediction among Russian commercial banks. The data used in the study include monthly balance sheet information on Russian banks in post-crisis period from 1 January 2010 until 31 December 2011. Factors characterizing theф financial stability of banks were obtained using binary logistic regression. With the help of these factors it becomes possible to identify problem banks 5 months prior to their failure.
Research target: Economics and Management
Priority areas: economics
, , , Бизнес-информатика 2014 № 3 С. 49-56
Object of this research is the Russian banking system. The work purpose – creation of the comput-er program of an assessment of probability of bankruptcies of banks because of revocation of li-cense of banks and use of this system as mathematical model for detection of some regularities of the Russian bank sphere. The instrument of ...
Added: March 2, 2015
, , History of the World Largest Financial Losses in 1972-2018 / . 2018. No. 166.
Deregulation is often claimed to be the cause for financial distress. Thus it has to lead to financial defaults and losses. However, exact dependence is not clear. To verify it we tried to investigate the roots of world largest financial losses. As we found no source to extensively and completely cover those, we decided to ...
Added: October 16, 2018
, , Научно-исследовательский финансовый институт. Финансовый журнал 2021 Т. 13 С. 75-90
This work is devoted to creating a model which could predict bankruptcy of Russian insurance companies. The aim of the study is to build a model based on panel data; its final version should have a good predictive power. Said topic is relevant because the number of revoked licenses has changed a lot over the ...
Added: September 3, 2021
, Финансовая аналитика: проблемы и решения 2017 Т. 10 № 4 (434) С. 403-417
Importance Having been adopted in 2015, personal insolvency regulations significantly influenced the supply structure in the lending market, and dramatically changed banks' approaches to dealing with difficult customers, especially in consumer lending. Objectives The research analyzes strengths and weaknesses credit institutions face as a result of the enforcement of personal insolvency regulations, nature of changes ...
Added: December 11, 2017
, , Бизнес-информатика 2019 Т. 13 № 3 С. 52-66
This paper is devoted to comparison of the capabilities of various methods to predict the bankruptcy of construction industry companies on a one-year horizon. The authors considered the following algorithms: logit and probit models, classification trees, random forests, artificial neural networks. Special attention was paid to the peculiarities of the training machine learning models, the impact of data ...
Added: December 8, 2019
, , International Journal of Industrial Organization 2013 Vol. 31 No. 3 P. 223-237
A highly acclaimed result in contract theory is that tournaments are superior to piece rate contracts when the agents are risk averse and their production activities are subject to a relatively large common shock. The reason is that tournaments allow the principal to trade insurance for lower income to the agents. Our analysis shows that ...
Added: February 6, 2013
Systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies: Evidence from multivariate causal inference
, , Research in International Business and Finance 2020 Т. 52 С. 101172
The paper investigates causal relationships between systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies, conditional on global volatility proxied by the VIX index, in a sample of 15 advanced and major emerging market economies during January 2008-June 2018. We test for Granger causality in time and frequency domains as well as dissect multivariate causal linkages ...
Added: August 22, 2020
, , , Expert Systems with Applications 2017 Vol. 88 P. 393-401
By present, many models of bankruptcy forecasting have been developed, but this area remains a field of research activity; little is known about the practical application of existing models. In our opinion, this is because the use of existing models is limited by the conditions in which they are developed. Another question concerns the factors ...
Added: October 30, 2017
, , Социология: методология, методы, математическое моделирование 2017 № 45 С. 133-176
Psychologists and sociologists usually interpret happiness scores as cardinal and comparable across respondents, and thus run OLS regressions on happi-ness and changes in happiness. Economists usually assume only ordinality and have mainly used ordered latent response models, thereby not taking satisfactory account of fixed individual traits. We address this problem by developing a conditional estimator ...
Added: March 11, 2019
, , Вестник Воронежского государственного университета. Серия: Экономика и управление 2014 № 2 С. 9-18
The research focuses on empirical estimates of what Russians think about everyday corruption in Russia. We use LITS, WVS and RLMS-HSE data sets. It was discovered concave dependence of corruption expectations on age and positive on income. Level of education and town habitation increase confidence in necessity of bribes. Retrospective questions confirm that corruption did ...
Added: October 7, 2014
Современные особенности применения экономических моделей диагностики вероятности наступления банкротства юридических лиц
, , Вестник Пермского университета. Юридические науки 2014 № 1(23) С. 197-205
In article the questions connected with application of economic models and methods for forecasting of bankruptcy of legal entities are analysed. According to the current legislation about bankruptcy the limited amount of criteria is applied to diagnostics of insolvency of legal entities: coefficients of the current liquidity, security with own working capital and restoration (loss) of ...
Added: December 19, 2014
, Эволюция института банкротства в России: выбор кредиторами стратегии возврата долга / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP10 "Научные доклады Института институциональных исследований". 2007. No. 05.
The bankruptcy law and relevant coercive system determine the nature and scale of accompanying transaction expenses that play, in our opinion, a key role in choosing debt recovery mechanisms. We consider two basic scenarios of debt recovery: judicial procedures provided by the relevant laws and informal mechanisms worked out by direct participants of the relations. These ...
Added: March 16, 2013
, , Borsa Istanbul Review 2019 Vol. 19 No. 4 P. 344-356
This paper examines the nature of the relationship between corporate R&D investment and the probability of default. Existing evidence on the topic is varied and often conflicting due to its complexity. In this paper, we investigated the non-linear relationship between R&D investment and the probability of default, and also detected several factors influencing the nature ...
Added: September 30, 2019
, , et al., Экономическая политика 2017 № 3 С. 174-209
In this case-study we analyse the debt restructuring by Russian metallurgical companies Evraz, Metallinvest, Mechel and Rusal the necessity of which was caused by the rapid deterioration of their financial standing in the crisis of 2008. We summarize the terms of the primary debt restructuting and calculate the gains and losses from the restructuring for ...
Added: July 13, 2017
Методы финансового оздоровления, повышающие эффективность функционирования электроэнергетических компаний
, Финансовая жизнь 2017 № 3 С. 64-67
Currently, the main problem in assessing the financial condition is the fact that the methodology proposed by the authors do not take into account the nature of the activities of energy companies. Currently, the majority of the works of Russian and foreign authors related to financial recovery issues are not investigated the influence of industry-specific ...
Added: January 31, 2018
, , International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics 2017 Vol. 7 No. 1/2 P. 170-209
Since 2013, we have observed an increasing number of failed Russian banks with negative capital and falsified financial reporting. We use previously unavailable data for the period 2010 – 1H2015 to develop a logit model predicting the probability of bank failure with negative capital. In order to do so, we suggest solutions for the class ...
Added: October 4, 2016
Предпочтения кредиторов в ходе банкротства: формальное банкротство или реструктуризация (пример компании «Трансаэро»)
, , Российский журнал менеджмента 2017 № 2 С. 225-248
This article is a case study of the bankruptcy of the Russian passenger aviation company “Transaero” that took place in 2015 aimed to reveal the preferences of creditors of financially distressed companies between formal bankruptcy and restructuring. We tested the hypothesis that the creditors of Transaero have chosen its bankruptcy because its liquidation value was ...
Added: July 13, 2017
Determinants of the probability of default: the case of the internationally listed shipping corporations
, , et al., Maritime Policy and Management 2017 Vol. 44 No. 7 P. 837-858
In this study, we use a sample of 192 listed shipping companies and employ a logit model in order to investigate the determinants of the probability of default. We enhance our analysis by isolating not only the cases of company liquidations but also those cases where companies had to change their legal status due to ...
Added: October 17, 2017
, , Финансовая аналитика: проблемы и решения 2017 № 2 (332) С. 226-240
Статья посвящена моделированию вероятности дефолта российских коммерческих банков. В связи со спецификой экономической и политической обстановки в стране изучение проблем банкротства российских коммерческих банков еще долгое время будет оставаться актуальным. ...
Added: March 1, 2017
, Финансы: теория и практика 2019 Т. 23 № 5 С. 62-74
The article is concerned with determining the main predictors of bankruptcy in construction organizations in the Russian Federation. Probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy is relevant for both individual companies and sectors of the national economy. Developed a long time ago, the existing bankruptcy prediction methods do not consider the industry specifics of organizations. The article investigates ...
Added: November 2, 2021
, Коммерческое право. Научно-практический журнал 2013 № 1 С. 102-107
The article examines the issues connected with the necessity of transaction invalidation in terms of bankruptcy. Considering the last changes to the Law on bankruptcy the author suggests criteria of classification of the invalidation grounds. ...
Added: February 12, 2015
Оценка финансовой устойчивости и влияния инноваций на вероятность банкротства инновационного предприятия
, , , Инновационное развитие экономики 2018 Т. 1 № 43 С. 135-143
The article examines the relationship between financial sustainability and innovation activity of foreign innovative enterprises of the elevator industry from different countries for the period from 2011 to 2016. The purpose of the work is to improve the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of innovative enterprises and study the relationship between indicators of their ...
Added: May 17, 2018
A Binary Model versus Discriminant Analysis Relating to Corporate Bankruptcies: The Case of Russian Construction Industry
, , Journal of Accounting, Finance and Economics 2013 Vol. 3 No. 1 P. 65-76
The last market crash of 2008-2009 showed that the construction sphere is one of the most fragile spheres to the crisis effect. The destructive effect of this crash was resulted in substantial decrease in mortgage lending, price index, capital investment, and in growth of the cost level. As the construction industry remains strategically important, the ...
Added: December 2, 2013
, , , Procedia Computer Science 2022 Vol. 214 P. 817-824
Over the last two decades global economy and financial markets have seen many crises with an increasing frequency. Many of them were either unexpected or their effects were unpredictable. Therefore, a lot of conventional and popular investment opportunities have shortened or became less attractive for either private or institutional investors leaving a room for new ...
Added: March 9, 2023