Сезонная корректировка как источник ложных сигналов
The analysis of short-term tendency of economic dynamics can be performed on seasonally adjusted data only. This implies that each time series is to be transformed in two: the seasonal component and the remaining part. The result of such decomposition depends on the specific features of the seasonal adjustment algorithm. Most uncertainty is expected within the neighborhood of crises when the economic indicators are likely to demonstrate substantial changes. Under such circumstances, the seasonal adjustment procedures are likely to generate spurious signals that deteriorate the seasonally adjusted series.
In this paper we analyze distortions of seasonally adjusted time series of economic data that appear in the neighborhood of crises. We examined the aberrations caused by sharp level shifts as well as by changes in seasonal pattern and showed that under these circumstances the standard algorithms of seasonal adjustment can generate spurious signals similar to first signs of a crisis or its second and following waves. We consider these misleading signals from two points of view: first, as an economic historian who operates with long time series of unchanging data; second, as an analyst of short-term dynamics monitoring the data that is subject to revisions.
We show that these aberrations can be misleading for understanding of short-run dynamics especially during the first years after a crisis. The identification of the end of a recession and estimation of seasonally adjusted values of observations right after the peak (or bottom) of a fluctuation seem to be the most problematic. Monitoring within this “blind zone” appears to be very complicated. We compared aberrations produced by X-12-ARIMA and TRAMO/SEATS. Some recommendations to soften the distortions are proposed.
The article suggests and describes a laboratory stand, allowing analysis printed board assembly electronic equipment (low-frequency amplifier) with the aim of monitoring the technical condition and diagnosis. This method has been implemented stand "Troubleshooting Handbook." The stand is designed for laboratory work by students in the course "means and methods of technical diagnostics."
While much of the world worries about increasing population, this book looks the other way. It highlights the dramatic fall in fertility rates in all regions of the world. Demographers suggest that by 2050 this will lead to population decline. While environmentally this may be welcomed, there may also be negative impacts on our economies: less workers, an increasing number of elderly, and more unwanted childlessness. In this book, key experts untangle the reasons for not having children; international case studies demonstrate that there are similar but also different reasons operating in different areas and psychologists and sociologists explore the possible impact on children, parents and the elderly. Given that fertility trends are not easy to reverse, the book concludes that more needs to be done to maximize the potential of all children; particularly those who have been at the margins of society.
Issues of ex post evaluation of mergers and antitrust bodies prescriptions are discussed. Among them: interrelation of enactment and enforcement from the perspectives of errors of I and II types in antitrust mergers control; probable consequences of mergers for competition; Аннотации к статьям 206 тьям № 1, 2012 comparative advantages and failures of decision variants available for antitrust bodies; ways of decision-making in expected merger. Also there are issues on efficacy of antimonopoly body decisions taking into account cost of monitoring, sanctioning of mergers participants, including influence on competition condition on relevant markets.
Telehealth systems demand standardized solutions to be cost effective and to take advantage of middleware operation and interoperability. The plug-&-play and standard-based platform that, either as individual elements or as components, can be incorporated in a simple way into different homecare environments. Many company, not traditionally involved in medical markets, increasing pressure for a standard for Personal Health Devices (PHD). As a result: ISO/IEEE11073 (X73) standards is adapting from Intensive Unit Care (ICU) scope, focused on the Point-Of-Care (PoC), to Personal Health Devices (PHD), focused on ubiquitous environments, implementing high quality sensors, supporting wireless technologies and providing a faster and more reliable communication network resources. This X73-PHD version is for the homecare challenge and might appear the best-positioned international standards to reach this goal. In this article, a X73 compliant agent and manager communication for homecare platform, as a proof of concept, will be explaining all steps implemented as well as on demand agent specific protocol plugins downloaded to X73 Manager.
The notion that certain management practices at all levels create substantial competitive advantages for the company in the market received a lot of attention in the academic community over the years. A large body of work was accumulated as a result, though it appears that a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between management practices and firm performance is still lacking. This study is a part of a larger project aiming at closing this gap. The objective of this study was to create a typology of companies based on efficiency, using a number of objective criteria obtained from publicly available information.
The conference is organized in collaboration with Polish Economic Society Branch in Toruń and Brno University of Technology (Czech Republic), BA School of Business and Finance (Latvia), Daugavpils University (Lithuania), Pereyaslav-Khmelnitsky Hryhoriy Skovoroda State Pedagogical University (Ukraine), University of Angers (France), University of Pablo de Olavide (Spain), University of Latvia (Latvia). The conference is addressed to economist from all European Union countries and Eastern Europe. It aims to bring together economists form Western, Central and Eastern Europe to discuss issues in economics, finance and business management. Main conference tracks include: 1. Macroeconomics; Microeconomics; Econometrics; International Economics 2. Financial markets; Labour markets; Institutions; 3. Business environment; Management and Marketing.
Using data on foreign borrowing, I identify Russian banks that were affected by the sudden stop of external financing caused by the Lehman Brothers’ collapse. Applying the difference-in-difference method, I compare these «affected» banks to «unaffected» ones and find that the Russian Central Bank’s (CBR) anti-crisis financial assistance primarily went to the former group. Tracing the impact of the CBR’s liquidity infusions on banks’ portfolio allocation decisions, I find that banks used CBR funds not only to pay out foreign debt, but also to accumulate cash deposits in non-resident banks. I also find that affected banks increased their holdings of market securities significantly more than unaffected ones, which suggests that the CBR’s bailout policies impacted their risk-taking strategies. While there was no significant difference in corporate lending growth between the two groups after the sudden stop, lending to borrowers with weaker banking relationships (individuals and entrepreneurs) decreased more among affected banks.
In this paper the authors analyze the optimization of public service delivery in Russia. The role of the optimization of administrative processes in the modernization of public administration is also considered; major activities aimed at the optimization of the public services delivery in 2010-2011 are described; some background information for decision making process is revealed; major methods of improving quality and accessibility of public services are analyzed; the key methodological approaches for the reengineering of public services and spheres of government regulations are presented. Basing on the researches conducted, the authors propose the ways of making the activities aimed at the optimization of public services effi cient.
We consider certain spaces of functions on the circle, which naturally appear in harmonic analysis, and superposition operators on these spaces. We study the following question: which functions have the property that each their superposition with a homeomorphism of the circle belongs to a given space? We also study the multidimensional case.
We consider the spaces of functions on the m-dimensional torus, whose Fourier transform is p -summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of the exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase. The results generalize to the multidimensional case the one-dimensional results obtained by the author earlier in “Quantitative estimates in the Beurling—Helson theorem”, Sbornik: Mathematics, 201:12 (2010), 1811 – 1836.
We consider the spaces of function on the circle whose Fourier transform is p-summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase.