Эффективность технического анализа в различных отраслях российского фондового рынка
The proposed article is about one of the most important and interesting types of bonds – indexable ones, which coupon and nominal value depend on the changes of important macroeconomic indicators in order to secure investors from possible risks. This segment of the market spreaded widely and it is developing further now, despite crisis conditions and recessions in the economy. At the same time, in Russia it is in clutched conditions so far. The authors are considering the international experience of emission of such bonds and the reasons of their narrow use in Russia. The peculiarity, advantages and disadvantages of that experience are analyzed. The given conclusions may be useful for different parties of the stock market - from private investors to researchers of modeling of bond loans.
In this paper I diagnose the existence of the bubble in the Russian stock market in 2008 by evaluating the preconditions and direct and indirect indications of the stock market bubbles as well as by analyzing the price levels before the market crash. The research has shown that in 2008 in Russia there existed such preconditions of the bubbles as favorable economic environment, growth of lending and cheap credit, and the state support of investors. Such factors as mass flow into the stock market of retail investors and introduction of new media of communications were only partially present. Of four analyzed indirect indications of the bubble only two, namely the inflow of foreign funds into the stock market and the growth of the number of the investment funds, were present in a week form, other two, namely the increase of IPO and undervaluation of shares in the course of IPO and the narrowness of the market, were completely absent. In the Russian stock market there were no such direct signs of the bubble as quickly accelerating price increase, increase in volatility and trading volume immediately before the crash. The size of correction, 80%, was huge, however it was compensated by quick recovery after the crashn. In 2008–2009 the P/E multiplier of the Russian stock market exceeded the hurdle levels of the bubble only for a short period of time, the market’s P/E peaked after the correction, but not before, the dividend yield before the crisis was not at its lows, its minimum was reached in the course of correction, and the multiplier “market capitalization to GDP” of the Russian stock market was modest compared to the multiplier of the other BRICS members and developed countries. Such pattern may witness in favor of a very small positive bubble in spring of 2008. Thus, the depth of correction in 2008 may be explained by the formation of a negative bubble, testing of which should be the subject of a separate study and would require the development of the appropriate methodology.
The article is devoted to a new approach for the Russian market, aimed at predicting the prices of financial assets and making market operations - a statistical arbitrage. Despite the fact that the western markets, investors have long been actively using the methods of statistical arbitrage, in Russia they have not yet received adequate distribution. The authors reveal the essence of this approach and demonstrated its effectiveness in the Russian stock market.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.