Calls Forecast for the Moscow Ambulance Service. The Impact of Weather Forecast
This paper presents a method and computational technology for forecasting ambulance trips. We used statistical information about the number of the trips (per day or per night) in 2009-2013, the meteorological archive, and the corresponding archive of the meteorological measurements and meteorological forecasts for the same period. We take into account both social and meteorological predictors simultaneously. The impact of the meteorological factors (both climatic and short range lead times) into the statistics may be significant for some diseases. We present also the errors of these forecasts and demonstrate that the quality of our weather forecasts for the lead times 1- 3 days is good for the forecasting the number of ambulance trips.
The method may be used operatively for planning and control in the ambulance service. It may be applied for all trips and for specific subgroups of diseases. The method and the technology may be applied for any megalopolis if the corresponding medical and meteorological information is available.