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The Fragmentation of the Global Economy and U.S.-Russia Relations
The development of globalization has not been one of steadily rising interconnectedness. The foundations for the latest and greatest round of globalization are fragile. The fragmentation of the world economy into more regionalized trading blocs will affect the United States and Russia differently. The United States is dependent on an increasingly skeptical world to finance its large current account deficits; far-flung production chains for goods made or designed in the United States might be disrupted in ways that will increase both costs and prices; and, ultimately, this withdrawal will accelerate the nation’s long-term secular decline as a share of world output. Russia’s economic growth remains highly dependent on commodity exports, which may make it less susceptible to the costs of reduced globalization but which will limit economic development for decades to come. The prospects for U.S.-Russia economic cooperation in a deglobalizing world are limited while American and European sanctions are still in place.