The paper analyzes the impact of nighttime alcohol trade restrictions in regions of Russia on the consumption of alcoholic beverages. Evaluation has been carried out based on the regional Rosstat data and individual data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey by the HSE for 2009–2010. Econometric analysis has revealed a positive correlation between the amount of consumed alcohol and the duration of the allowed time for alcohol sales in the region. In addition, it has been found that night restrictions are more efficient than morning restrictions in the context of a decrease in alcohol consumption. The obtained results indicate the expediency of further tightening of the restrictive policy.
Background: We present a method for reclassifying external causes of death categorized as “event of undetermined intent” (EUIs) into non-transport accidents, suicides, or homicides. In nations like Russia and the UK the absolute number of EUIs is large, the EUI death rate is high, or EUIs comprise a non-trivial proportion of all deaths due to external causes. Overuse of this category may result in (1) substantially underestimating the mortality rate of deaths due to specific external causes and (2) threats to the validity of studies of the patterns and causes of external deaths and of evaluations of the impact of interventions meant to reduce them.
Methods: We employ available characteristics about the deceased and the event to estimate the most likely cause of death using multinomial logistic regression. We use the set of known non-transport accidents, suicides, and homicides to calculate an mlogit-based linear score and an estimated classification probability (ECP). This ECP is applied to EUIs, with varying levels of minimal classification probability. We also present an optional second step that employs a population-level adjustment to reclassify deaths that remain undetermined (the proportion of which varies based on the minimal classification probability). We illustrate our method by applying it to Russia. Between 2000 and 2011, 521,000 Russian deaths (15 % percent of all deaths from external causes) were categorized as EUIs. We used data from anonymized micro-data on the ~3 million deaths from external causes. Our reclassification model used 10 decedent and event characteristics from the computerized death records.
Results: Results show that during this period about 14 % of non-transport accidents, 13 % of suicides, and 33 % of homicides were officially categorized as EUIs. Our findings also suggest that 2011 levels of non-transport accidents and suicides would have been about 24 % higher and of homicide about 82 % higher than that reported by official vital statistics data.
Conclusions: Overuse of the external cause of death classification “event of undetermined intent” may indicate questionable quality of mortality data on external causes of death. This can have wide-ranging implications for families, medical professionals, the justice system, researchers, and policymakers. With our classification probability set as equal to or higher than 0.75, we were able to reclassify about two-thirds of EUI deaths in our sample. Our optional additional step allowed us to redistribute the remaining unclassified EUIs. Our method can be applied to data from any nation or sub-national population in which the EUI category is employed.
-We study an epidemic propagation between M popuilation centra. The novelty of the model lies in the explicit analysis of the dynamics of host (remaining nin the same cemtre) and guest (migrated from another centre) population separately.
Recovery after stroke relates tightly to the white matter integrity. Currently, the main methodology for non-invasive white matter integrity assessment is diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI), a state-of-the-art approach which is, however, prone to multiple limitations. Using DW-MRI, it was demonstrated that many pathways including corticospinal tract (CST) and corpus callosum contribute to structural brain reserve after stroke, but only a few of these tracts were found to be useful in the clinical practice. The most widely known measure is an asymmetry of the fractional anisotropy (FA) in CST at the level of the internal capsule, which could be used for predicting motor recovery in acute stroke. Recently, a new complementary motor component of the structural reserve, the so-called alternate motor fibers (AMFs), was proposed for motor recovery prognosis in stroke patients, and it was even reported to correlate with the effect of the transcranial direct current stimulation in chronic stroke. Here, we would like to point out a possible additional sensory interpretation of the AMF that appears plausible after taking into account technical limitations of DW-MRI approach, which may potentially give rise to different interpretations of the same results.
BACKGROUND: World mapping is an important tool to visualize stroke burden and its trends in various regions and countries. OBJECTIVES: To show geographic patterns of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke in the world for 1990-2013. METHODOLOGY: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated following the general approach of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 with several important improvements in methods. Data were updated for mortality (through April 2014) and stroke incidence, prevalence, case fatality and severity through 2013. Death was estimated using an ensemble modeling approach. A new software package, DisMod-MR 2.0, was used as part of a custom modeling process to estimate YLDs. All rates were age-standardized to new GBD estimates of global population. All estimates have been computed with 95% uncertainty intervals. RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence, mortality, prevalence and DALYs/YLDs declined over the period from 1990 to 2013. However, the absolute number of people affected by stroke has substantially increased across all countries in the world over the same time period, suggesting that the global stroke burden continues to increase. There were significant geographical (country and regional) differences in stroke burden in the world, with the majority of the burden borne by low- and middle-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Global burden of stroke has continued to increase in spite of dramatic declines in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality rates and disability. Population growth and aging have played an important role in the observed increase in stroke burden.
Россия известна во всем мире не только значительным потреблением алкоголя, но и – по оценкам ВОЗ - особо опасной моделью такого потребления. В последние годы, однако, правительство существенно ужесточило меры антиалкогольной политики. Так, в 2010 году большинство регионов страны (72 из 83) ввели запреты на продажу спиртных напитков, за исключением пива, в ночные часы. 11 регионов не вводили подобных мер.
Мы использовали эту уникальную ситуацию как своего рода естественный эксперимент, чтобы определить, как новые временные ограничения повлияли на потребление алкоголя. Использовались официальные статистические данные Росстата об объемах продаж отдельных спиртных напитков по регионам, а также микроданные РМЭЗ- НИУ ВШЭ. Проводился дескриптивный анализ данных о подушевых продажах алкоголя, а также регрессионный анализ индивидуального потребления спиртных напитков с учетом ряда факторов, в том числе – временных ограничений торговли.
Обнаружилась значимая положительная корреляция между объемом потребляемого алкоголя и количеством часов, когда торговля разрешена (контролировались другие факторы). Результаты регрессионного анализа подтверждаются данными региональных продаж. С точки зрения сокращения потребления, вечерние ограничения торговли оказываются более эффективными, чем утренние. При этом запреты на ночную торговлю крепкими напитками не увеличивают потребление пива и самогона.
Таким образом, временные ограничения на продажу спиртного – потенциально эффективная мера политики сокращения пьянства. Результаты исследования говорят о том, что ограничения должны быть более жесткими в тех регионах, где потребление алкоголя отличается значительными масштабами.