The world economy relies on access to industrial metals, oil and gas for maintaining its critical industrial infrastructure. Although demand is likely to remain high, the most accessible deposits have been depleted. Future capacity growth will be facilitated through further technological developments. Russia as a leading producer is paying great attention to strengthening its competitive edge in global markets. This paper reports on a large-scale technology foresight study of the Russian extractive sector (including oil and gas), which combined expert-based foresight activities with statistical analyses and text-mining techniques based on artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies. The presented methodology helped to link the technologies to dominant discussions (e.g. climate change vs rural development) and to flag key trends. Furthermore, quantitative estimates can be identified quickly. The study’s methodology should function as an example for similar studies to support policy planning and investment decisions based on text-mining techniques.
Under the transition to a market economy Russian science, technology and innovation (STI) has changed dramatically. After the crisis of late 1990s, the government declared science and technology (S&T) as one of national priorities and started increasingly investing in this sector but it has not led to the tangible output like a bigger volume of high-tech exports or a higher share of international publications. A number of policy instruments have been introduced to increase the efficiency of STI policies. One of them is S&T Foresight.
The activities aimed at identification of national S&T priorities and series of Foresight studies have helped to understand which areas are most promising for sustaining existing competitive advantages and building new ones via gradual shift from the resource-based economy towards the technology-oriented one.
The paper presents the design and organisation of a large-scale Russian S&T Foresight exercise as a fully-fledged instrument of the national STI policy and discusses the achieved results and their use for policies at different levels.
Conducting national Foresight studies has become common in many countries. However the impact of such studies on the performance of the national innovation system remains unclear. The paper therefore assesses the impact of national Foresight studies conducted in member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Research Area (ERA).