The paper analyzes the impact of nighttime alcohol trade restrictions in regions of Russia on the consumption of alcoholic beverages. Evaluation has been carried out based on the regional Rosstat data and individual data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey by the HSE for 2009–2010. Econometric analysis has revealed a positive correlation between the amount of consumed alcohol and the duration of the allowed time for alcohol sales in the region. In addition, it has been found that night restrictions are more efficient than morning restrictions in the context of a decrease in alcohol consumption. The obtained results indicate the expediency of further tightening of the restrictive policy.
This paper describes the forecasting of crude oil prices for the next few years. This forecast is essential to strategic investors' understanding of the price at which it will be possible to sell the goods in which theyhave invested.
This paper provides an estimate of the dynamics in expenditures on health care and education made from all sources in Russia in the 1995–2012 and viewed as investments in human capital. These data from Russia are compared with those from other countries. The problems of efficiency in the functioning of these systems and different affordability of these services are considered.
This is a sequel to a paper published in the previous issue of this journal (No. 1, 2008), which dealtwith a system of tables to provide a theoretical description of the transformation of primary incomes into finalconsumption and saving expenditures. On the basis of the proposed system of tables an empirical model wasbuilt, which can describe in quantitative terms the relationship between the elements of value added and endproduct in the Russian economy over the period 1995-2003. We have proposed and put into practice an algorithmfor estimating primary income parts (flows) spent on financing various end-use items. The calculatedflows are interpreted as elements of Quadrant IV of the interindustry balance (or tables of use of goods and services)in current consumer prices. We have estimated a system of dynamic equations for these shares, whichcan be used as the basis for predicting the end-use structure under given volumes of value added elements.
This paper considers the mathematical model of economic dynamics under the conditions of stagflation, which was previously developed by the authors and is now generalized for the case of the volatility of the national currency due to the volatility of oil prices. The model is used for the medium-term forecast of economic development in Russia up to 2020.
The article addresses the poor quality of mortality statistics due to external causes, as figures are understated in Russia and its federal subjects. The actual death rates for homicides, suicides, and alcohol poisonings in the Republic of Bashkortostan have been reviewed based on the suggested models. According to models 1–3, on average, homicide mortality is estimated to be 1.6 times higher for males and 1.4 times higher for females compared to the officially reported data; suicide mortality rates are 1.2 times higher for both genders, while fatal accidental poisonings by alcohol are 1.8 times higher among males and 2.1 times higher among females. Model 4 predicts the gain in homicide mortality to be 3.8 and 3.2 times that for males and females, respectively, and the increase in suicide mortality to be 1.4 times higher for males and 2 times higher for females. Last but not least, mortality from fatal alcohol poisoning is predicted to be 3.0 times and 5.9 times higher than the officially reported rates. The mortality rate from the all so-called external causes is expected to increase by 1.2 times among males and by 1.4 times among females, mainly due to the increase in mortality levels in working-age groups (15–60).
The article proposes methodological approaches to the verification of indicators of the state of thecountry’s economic security using the method of fractal analysis. Fractal analysis technologies make it pos-sible to determine the nature and dynamics of changes in the indicator, to verify its values (indicative or crit-ical), and also to reveal the rate at which these states are reached on the time horizon of statistical observa-tions. The unemployment rate indicator is selected as an example.
This paper focuses on the development of a theoretical scheme describing the transformation of primaryincomes into end consumption and savings in the Russian economy. This scheme is basically a system ofinterrelated tables reflecting the distribution of primary incomes across the institutional sectors and their furtherreallocation and use. The scheme makes allowances for the specific features of the Russian economy and existingstatistics. In terms of methodology, it is coordinated with the interindustry balance in current buyer pricesand, from the theoretical standpoint, describes the connection between Quadrant II and Quadrant III of the balance.Therefore, the proposed system of tables is treated in the paper as Quadrant IV of the interindustry balance.The theoretical scheme is used by the authors as a necessary basis for constructing an empirical model ofthe relationship between value added and end product, which will be published in the next issue of this journal.
Analyzing the accounting reports of 8573 Russian companies, the article determined the threshold values of the indicators for known foreign and domestic bankruptcy probability models for ten sectors of the economy. The developed a ten-factor bankruptcy model is based on sector-specific threshold values and has a relatively high predictive power for the majority of sectors.
В статье рассматривается концентрация страхового рынка в России, еe влияние на состояние страхования в стране и регионах. Проанализированы показатели концентрации страхового рынка, в том числе по видам страхования, уточнены факторы их изменения в период 2014–2018 гг. Даны прогнозные оценки концентрации страхового бизнеса на основе выявленных тенденций.
The present paper is a continuation of theoretical and methodological issues concerning the construction of time series of indicators of the utilization of capital, labor, and material resources (or inverse indicators of resource intensity). The indicators were differentiated by the so-called “new” and “old” elements of the productive apparatus. The paper presents the approaches to practical implementation of the developed econometric methods and the results of construction of indicators of material resources use in physical terms for the reported balance sheets.
В статье предлагается способ соединения статических и динамических характеристик для сравнительной оценки уровня, устойчивости, а также сбалансированности развития регионов в социальной, экономической и экологической сферах. Использование предложенного методического инструментария позволило выявить в исследуемых регионах проблемные области и стабильно проявляющиеся динамические диспропорции, требующие корректирующих воздействий для обеспечения устойчивого развития