The Talibs or the Taliban in Afghanistan

Iran and the Caucasus. 2021. Vol. 25 . No. 4. P. 420–431.

Асатрян Г. Э.

The rapid military and political victory of the Taliban movement during the summer offensive in 2021 shocked the system of international relations and the regional security architecture. The Taliban’s military successes in rural areas were expected and predicted, but the capture of Kabul and the instant capitulation of the official Afghan authorities became the “black swan” of regional geopolitics. This study hypothesis states that the reincarnation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was the logical result of an unsuccessful twenty-year military campaign by the United States and NATO. The attempt to integrate the Afghan society into an accelerated modernization process was carried out under immature socio-political practices and a complete lack of institutions. Another hypothesis of the study suggests that the victory of the radical terrorist movement can cause a domino effect and lead to the strengthening of international transcontinental terrorist groups. From the systems theory perspective, the victory of a radical group and establishing control over a UN member state cannot but cause a negative reaction to the global and regional security construction. The study puts forward a third hypothesis and thesis: the Taliban victory was the victory of radical political Islam (jihadism) at the global level, significantly strengthening its position in the system of international relations.

Ключевые слова: Афганистан, Afghanistan, Taliban, Талибан, «Большая Центральная Азия», Россия и Иран